The Quantum Computing Threat to Bitcoin’s Security
In recent years, advancements in quantum computing have sparked fresh concerns regarding the security of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin (BTC). The emergence of this cutting-edge technology may pose a significant threat to the cryptographic defenses that currently protect Bitcoin’s ecosystem.
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IBM’s Quantum Leap: IBM Quantum Starling
IBM (NYSE: IBM) is on the cusp of a breakthrough with its planned launch of the world’s pioneering fault-tolerant quantum computer, IBM Quantum Starling, slated for 2029. This development marks a substantial evolution from the error-prone quantum machines available today. The implications of such advancements are vast, especially for fields reliant on cryptography.
The Potential Threat to Bitcoin’s Cryptography
As quantum technology progresses, experts are actively discussing the potential timeline for when it might compromise Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses. Bitcoin currently relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) and SHA-256 hashing to secure wallets and transactions. The question remains: how long will these defenses hold against quantum advancements?
Insights from Industry Experts
Craig Gidney’s Perspective
In May 2025, Google’s quantum researcher Craig Gidney highlighted that advances in quantum computing might occur sooner than anticipated. His research indicated that breaking RSA encryption could require significantly fewer quantum resources than previously thought. While Bitcoin does not utilize RSA, it does depend on ECC, which, like RSA, is susceptible to Shor’s algorithm. Gidney suggested a potential threat window between 2030 and 2035, heavily influenced by progress in error correction techniques.
Gidney stated, “I estimate that a 2048-bit RSA integer could be factored in under a week by a quantum computer with fewer than one million noisy qubits.”
Adam Back’s Cautious Outlook
Conversely, Adam Back, an early Bitcoin advocate and CEO of Blockstream, remains more reserved in his predictions. In April 2025, he expressed the view that quantum computers are unlikely to pose a significant threat for at least another two decades. Nonetheless, he acknowledged that unforeseen breakthroughs might necessitate moving coins to quantum-resistant addresses, potentially including Satoshi Nakamoto’s untouched Bitcoin holdings.
David Carvalho’s Urgent Warning
In June 2025, David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, published an opinion piece in Cointelegraph issuing a more immediate warning. He projected that quantum computers could compromise Bitcoin within five years unless swift upgrades to its cryptography are implemented. Carvalho cited technologies like Microsoft’s Majorana chip as indicators that formidable quantum systems are on the horizon.
According to Carvalho, “About 30% of Bitcoin is currently stored in vulnerable addresses, and a single breach could dismantle the trust established over the network’s 16-year history. A breach would be catastrophic for holders, whose funds would be gone forever, and the ecosystem at large. It would prove that the unbreakable system can be broken.”
Chamath Palihapitiya’s Strategic Call
Similarly, in December 2024, billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya noted the potential for Bitcoin’s SHA-256 encryption to be broken within two to five years due to rapid quantum advancements. His cautionary remarks followed Google’s unveiling of its 105-qubit Willow chip, seen as a significant milestone. Palihapitiya emphasized the importance of blockchain developers beginning to rework hashing algorithms promptly.
Ultimately, the risk posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin hinges on the development of fault-tolerant quantum computers with millions of qubits, a milestone that remains in the future.
