The Rising Prospects of a Solana (SOL) Spot ETF Approval by 2025
The likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granting approval for a spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) by 2025 is experiencing a significant upswing. As confidence grows, market predictions place the odds at more than 80%.
Increasing Confidence in SOL Spot ETF Approval
As of June 1, the probability of approval had risen to 83%, marking a notable 9% increase in market confidence. This data was sourced from the prediction platform Polymarket by Finbold.
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Polymarket’s trend analysis on the topic “Solana ETF approved in 2025?” illustrates a dynamic yet progressively upward trajectory in approval chances throughout the year.
Fluctuations and Trends in Approval Odds
Since the beginning of January 2025, the probability has seen fluctuations, dipping below 70% in April before experiencing a sharp rise in May, reaching as high as 90%. Despite minor setbacks, the odds have stabilized above 80% as the year advances.
Developments in Solana-Related ETF Proposals
This growing optimism correlates with ongoing advancements in Solana-related ETF proposals. Notably, the SEC is currently evaluating a proposed rule change by NYSE Arca to list the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund, which encompasses Solana, alongside prominent cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Recently, the SEC extended its decision timeline by 60 days, moving the original June 1, 2025, deadline to July 31, 2025.
New Proposals and Regulatory Challenges
Adding complexity to the regulatory landscape, REX Shares and Osprey Funds have introduced a proposal for an innovative “staking ETF.” This fund aims to invest in Solana and Ethereum, staking at least half of its assets to generate additional yield.
However, the SEC has raised concerns regarding the structure’s qualification as an investment company under the Investment Company Act.
SEC Associate Director Brent J. Fields, in a letter, highlighted unresolved issues related to the proposal’s compliance, indicating potential obstacles for Solana’s ETF aspirations.
Current SOL Price and Market Sentiment Analysis
At the time of writing, Solana (SOL) is trading at $151, reflecting a 1.5% decrease over the past 24 hours. On a weekly scale, the asset has endured a decline of over 10%.
Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators
Overall, the market sentiment surrounding Solana remains bearish. The Fear & Greed Index points to extreme fear among investors.
Additionally, technical indicators such as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $157.44 and the 200-day SMA at $166.02 are positioned above the current price, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend.
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