Bitcoin’s Path: Potential Correction as It Aims for $90,000
Analyzing Bitcoin’s Market Structure
As Bitcoin (BTC) makes strides toward reclaiming the significant $90,000 resistance zone, a seasoned trading expert predicts a potential correction in the coming months. The analysis, shared on TradingView on January 28, sheds light on a possible decline to $45,000. This prediction stems from an observation that Bitcoin’s current market dynamics closely resemble the bearish cycle observed in 2022.
Comparison of Market Structures: 2022 vs. 2026
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A thorough examination of Bitcoin’s market patterns reveals intriguing similarities between the daily chart of 2022 and the evolving structure of 2026. The alignment of key moving averages (MAs) is strikingly similar, indicating a pattern repetition. Bitcoin has already encountered resistance at the 100-day moving average, echoing the rejection seen in March 2022, which led to a significant bearish downturn.
The price is now advancing toward a critical test of the 200-day moving average. In 2022, this acted as a formidable barrier before a sustained decline. Historically, after facing rejection at MA100, Bitcoin stabilized briefly, retested support, and surged to MA200 before experiencing a sharp downturn. The projection for 2026 suggests a similar sequence, with an anticipated failure near the $100,000 mark based on the current MA200 position.
Key Bitcoin Price Levels to Monitor
Should the anticipated rejection occur, historical patterns indicate a multi-stage decline through successive support levels. Initially, Bitcoin could face resistance around $70,000, followed by a potential dip to the $51,000–$52,000 range, and ultimately descending to $45,000. This trajectory mirrors the depth of the 2022 bear market low.
By aligning these cycles, the timing of moving-average rejections and eventual lows suggests a culmination of the sell-off in early October 2026. This reinforces the perspective that Bitcoin is navigating a broader cyclical pattern rather than reacting to isolated indicators.
Current Market Conditions and Influencing Factors
As Bitcoin recently surpassed $89,000, it did so against the backdrop of a declining U.S. dollar and skyrocketing gold prices. The dollar’s proximity to a four-year low, coupled with gold reaching unprecedented highs above $5,200 per ounce, has fueled demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin’s trading range remains relatively stable between $88,000 and $89,000, as market participants await the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision.
Investors are keenly observing potential signals regarding future interest rate cuts, which could bolster non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. A shift in interest rates could significantly impact Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Current Bitcoin Price Analysis
As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $89,892, reflecting a 2% increase over the past 24 hours and a 1.4% gain over the week. At this price point, Bitcoin is nearly aligned with its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $90,133, indicating a short-term equilibrium where the price neither breaks out significantly nor loses support.
The more critical indicator is the 200-day SMA at $104,551, which remains above the current price level. This disparity suggests that Bitcoin is still in a longer-term corrective or consolidation phase. The broader trend remains under pressure until Bitcoin can surpass this level.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 45.46, supporting this view. An RSI below 50 but not nearing oversold territory signifies moderate momentum; while selling pressure has reduced, buyers have yet to gain full control. In essence, Bitcoin is in a phase of stabilization rather than a robust recovery.
Conclusion
In summary, while Bitcoin strives to conquer the $90,000 resistance, it faces potential corrections influenced by historical patterns and current economic factors. Monitoring key support and resistance levels, along with market indicators, will be crucial for traders navigating this volatile landscape.
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