Ripple’s Routine Escrow Unlock: What to Expect and Market Implications
Understanding Ripple’s Escrow Unlock Process
Ripple is gearing up for its regular escrow release of 1 billion XRP, a practice that has been in place since 2017. This predictable event is poised to take place on March 1, 2026, maintaining its consistency over the years.
Countdown to March 2026 Unlock
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As we approach February 21, 2026, with just over a week remaining until the next scheduled unlock, investors are evaluating how this expected supply shift will influence the broader cryptocurrency landscape, which is currently experiencing a consolidation phase. Earlier in February, Ripple unlocked the full 1 billion XRP, with an approximate value of $1.63 billion at that time.
Re-escrow Trends and Net Supply Adjustments
In a familiar pattern, around 700 million XRP was re-escrowed shortly after the release, resulting in a net increase of approximately 300 million XRP. Following this cycle, data indicates that about 33.895 billion XRP remained in escrow.
March is expected to follow a similar path. While 1 billion XRP will officially be released, a significant portion is likely to be re-locked, potentially reducing the escrow balance to around 33.595 billion XRP by the end of the process.
Transparency and Supply Management
This structured approach aligns with Ripple’s initial aim of enhancing transparency and mitigating abrupt supply fluctuations. Each month, up to 1 billion XRP is released through time-locked contracts on the XRP Ledger. Typically, Ripple retains only 20% to 30% for operational needs, with the majority being re-escrowed.
This methodical schedule has extended beyond the initial 55-month timeline, ensuring a steady and measured increase in the circulating supply.
Impact on XRP Price
Historically, these unlocks have had a limited long-term impact on XRP’s price, primarily because they are anticipated events and the net supply increase remains modest.
Factors Influencing Price Volatility
While short-term volatility may arise from speculative activities or actions by large holders, sustained price movements are more often driven by broader market catalysts. Factors such as ongoing transaction fee burns, whale accumulation, and increasing institutional interest through investment vehicles like spot ETFs have helped alleviate concerns about potential selling pressure.
Overall, XRP’s price movement has mirrored that of the broader market, which has faced downward pressure in recent weeks.
Current Market Analysis
As of the latest update, XRP was trading at $1.43, showing a 0.6% increase over the past 24 hours.
XRP’s seven-day price chart indicates that it remains below critical moving averages, highlighting ongoing downside pressure. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) stands at $1.79, while the 200-day SMA is at $2.31, both significantly higher than the current price, indicating weak short-term momentum and a persistent bearish trend.
The considerable gap to the 200-day SMA suggests a more extended downtrend rather than a temporary pullback.
Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 41.42, remaining neutral but below the 50 midpoint, signaling subdued buying strength. Although not yet oversold, this reading indicates that sellers maintain control, though a short-term rebound could occur if momentum shifts.
