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Bitcoin’s Remarkable Surge: A New Chapter in Cryptocurrency
In recent days, Bitcoin has experienced a significant uptrend, with its value nearing its all-time peak of approximately $124,400. This optimistic momentum has triggered noteworthy shifts in the options trading arena, potentially shaping Bitcoin’s future price movements.
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Options Market Reveals Bullish Sentiment Among Traders
Insights from the blockchain analytics powerhouse, Glassnode, highlight a pivotal change following last week’s unprecedented options expiry. This event effectively cleared a substantial accumulation of contracts, essentially resetting the open interest landscape. As a result, traders are increasingly pivoting from downside protection to embracing a more bullish stance as the fourth quarter kicks off.
Volatility indices offer further evidence of this trend. The one-week implied volatility (IV), a crucial indicator of anticipated market fluctuations, has dipped by roughly three points since last week’s peak. Meanwhile, the two-week contract saw a reduction of two points. However, longer-duration contracts remain steady within the 40–43% range, suggesting stability in the near term but leaving room for potential volatility later in the year.
Additionally, a notable shift has occurred in risk reversals (RR), which gauge the balance between call and put demand. The one-week 25-delta RR has swung dramatically from an 18.5 vol put premium, indicating a strong preference for downside protection, to a 4 vol call premium, signifying increased interest in upside coverage. Longer-term outlooks have also flattened, underscoring a balanced risk perspective while reinforcing short-term bullish sentiment.
Market Dynamics Point to Optimistic Projections: Targets Set Between $136k–$145k
Compelling insights from Glassnode further substantiate the prevailing bullish trend, with options market data revealing traders’ inclination towards upside calls. Net premiums are concentrated in the $136,000–$145,000 strike range, reflecting expectations of sustained Bitcoin strength. Nonetheless, call selling at higher strikes indicates a cautious approach towards extreme parabolic targets.
In the current post-expiry environment, dealer gamma exposure remains subdued, with dealers maintaining a modestly long gamma position on both sides. This stabilizing factor may temper volatility in the short term, although meaningful hedging activity is likely to resurface as the next major expiry approaches. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $122,086, marking a notable 11.92% increase in the past day. Its daily trading volume has surged by 19.01%, reaching a valuation of $85.94 billion.
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