Exploring the Impact of Quantum Computing on Bitcoin Valuation
Our insightful editorial analysis, vetted by industry-leading experts and experienced editors, aims to unravel the potential implications of Quantum Computing on Bitcoin. This investigation is part of our commitment to provide well-researched and balanced content to our audience.
Understanding the Quantum Threat: A Potential 60% Discount by 2028
Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, has recently published an in-depth study examining how the emerging threat of Quantum Computing might devalue Bitcoin. This advanced technology poses a risk of breaching older Bitcoin wallets, leading to significant security concerns.
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As Edwards highlights, a successful quantum hack could undermine Bitcoin’s foundational principles. The concepts of “trust the code” and “hard money” would be severely compromised if up to 30% of Bitcoin’s supply, particularly those with exposed public keys, were stolen and liquidated.
The timeline for when Quantum Computing might evolve to challenge Bitcoin’s cryptography, known as “Q-Day,” remains uncertain. However, discussions around the topic are intensifying as this technological threat becomes more tangible.
Forecasting the Quantum Discount Factor
Edwards suggests that cognizant market players must now consider a “Quantum Discount Factor” when evaluating Bitcoin’s fair value. This metric is calculated by subtracting the years needed to upgrade Bitcoin’s defenses from the cumulative probability of Q-Day occurring by a specific year. Edwards bases these probabilities on expert forecasts.
Predictions for Q-Day and Bitcoin’s Upgrade Timeline
According to the compiled data, there is a 60% likelihood of Q-Day occurring by 2030, with the probability increasing to 80% by 2031. All predictions indicate that this event could transpire within the next decade, by 2035 at the latest.
Realistically, upgrading Bitcoin’s security measures could take around two years. However, in a highly optimistic scenario, this might be achievable in one year, though Edwards suggests a more cautious estimate of three years.
Projecting the Quantum Discount Factor
The analysis maps out the Quantum Discount Factor’s trajectory for Bitcoin. As of 2026, this factor stands at 20%, implying a 20% devaluation of Bitcoin’s fair value due to the quantum risk.
Without proactive measures to enhance the network’s security, this discount could escalate to nearly 40% by 2027, soar to 60% in 2028, and reach 75% by 2029.
Current Bitcoin Market Trends
At present, Bitcoin is valued at approximately $67,700, marking a 2% decline over the past week. The cryptocurrency’s price trajectory appears relatively stable.
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