Bitcoin’s Path to a New All-Time High: Analyzing the Bullish Outlook
Despite a traditionally bearish technical pattern, Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a potential surge, possibly driving the asset to soar by around 80%. This analysis delves into the factors that might propel Bitcoin to new heights, defying conventional market patterns.
Understanding the Death Cross and Its Implications
On April 4, a prominent trading analyst known as TradingShot highlighted a significant event in Bitcoin’s technical landscape: the formation of a one-day death cross. This pattern occurs when the 50-day moving average (MA) dips below the 200-day MA, typically signaling bearish momentum.
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However, during the ongoing bull cycle from 2023 to 2025, this pattern has paradoxically heralded substantial rallies, transforming it into a compelling buy signal. This observation was shared in a detailed TradingView post on April 4.
Channel Up: The Bullish Structure
The expert analysis suggests a bullish outlook based on Bitcoin’s broader trend, which has been upward since hitting a low in November 2022. This trend, known as a ‘channel up,’ is characterized by a series of higher lows, indicating a rising price structure.
Whenever Bitcoin approaches the lower limit of this channel, a one-day death cross coincides with a Bollinger Bands (BB) squeeze. This pattern indicates low volatility, often preceding significant price movements.
Bitcoin’s Transition Months: A Turning Point
Annually, these signals emerge during what TradingShot terms a “transition month,” marking a pivotal shift where Bitcoin moves from a local bottom into a new bullish phase. Historical transition months include December 2022, September 2023, and August 2024. Currently, April appears to fulfill this role in 2025.
Past transition months have historically resulted in at least 100% gains from the bottom. If the March 10 retest establishes the new base, Bitcoin could be on a trajectory toward $150,000.
The Next Bullish Leg: Targeting $150,000
“For the next leg up, all previous bullish legs rose by at least 100% from the bottom. Since March 10 was the closest test of the 1W MA50, it can be considered the bottom from which to measure the 100% leg up. This suggests that Bitcoin could reach at least $150,000 on the next peak,” the expert noted.
Overcoming Resistance: Bitcoin’s Next Challenge
To aim for $150,000, Bitcoin must first surpass several short-term resistance levels. On April 5, renowned cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez highlighted on social media platform X that Bitcoin’s primary obstacle is at the $87,000 mark.
At this level, three significant technical indicators converge: the 50-day MA, the 200-day MA, and a well-established descending trendline from Bitcoin’s historical peak. The 50-day MA reflects short- to mid-term momentum, while the 200-day MA indicates the broader trend. When these align with a descending trendline, it signifies sustained downward pressure and becomes a crucial battleground for bulls and bears.
A breakthrough above this zone could alter market sentiment, paving the way for higher prices. Conversely, a rejection might confirm ongoing bearish momentum.
It’s noteworthy that Bitcoin rebounded to nearly $84,000 recently, following a dip below $81,500, prompted by geopolitical tensions and market reactions to global economic policies. Despite market volatility, Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between $80,000 and $90,000 over the past month, while traders closely monitor global market trends in the absence of major crypto-specific events.
Current Bitcoin Price Analysis
As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $83,682, reflecting a modest 1% gain in the last 24 hours. Over the weekly timeframe, the digital asset is up 0.21%.
Overall, the current market sentiment for Bitcoin remains bearish, as indicated by a low Fear & Greed Index score of 26, signaling investor apprehension. Additionally, Bitcoin is trading below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $89,357 and the 200-day SMA of $84,704, suggesting potential short- and long-term challenges.
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