Bitcoin Market Analysis: Bullish Momentum and Key Insights
Overview of Bitcoin’s Recent Performance
Bitcoin has recently been trading just below the $120,000 mark, shortly after hitting a new record high of $123,200 on Monday. This minor retreat is seen by many investors as a healthy consolidation phase above critical demand areas, rather than an indication of market weakness. The bullish sentiment continues to dominate, supported by robust technical indicators that suggest a potential rally in the near future.
On-Chain Metrics Indicate Continued Strength
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Data from CryptoQuant further supports this optimistic outlook. As of July 17, 2025, the Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH NUPL) metric stands at 13%, a slight decrease from 16% when Bitcoin last peaked. This suggests that most short-term holders are experiencing moderate profits, not reaching the extreme levels that often signify speculative mania or an overheated market.
The combination of a stable price structure and healthy on-chain activity indicates a market that is still in an upward build-up phase. With Ethereum and various altcoins also showing strength and overall sentiment turning positive, Bitcoin appears poised for its next significant move.
Bitcoin’s Potential for Further Gains
According to renowned analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin still has considerable potential for growth before reaching levels that might spark speculative excess. Adler points out that in past macro cycles, when the STH NUPL metric hit 25%, it typically marked the peak of short-term holder euphoria. At this juncture, many investors started realizing profits, often leading to a slowdown or broader market correction.
As of July 17, 2025, the STH NUPL is at 13%, indicating that unrealized profits among short-term holders are still moderate. Based on the current market dynamics, Adler predicts that to reach a 25% unrealized profit level, Bitcoin would need to surpass $137,000. This price point could trigger mass selling, acting as both a psychological and on-chain threshold that might increase market volatility or cause a temporary halt in the cycle.
Until then, the data suggests that the bullish momentum can continue without the immediate pressure of profit-taking. This is particularly relevant as the US Congress debates three significant cryptocurrency bills during a tense and uncertain “Crypto Week.” Recent rejections of proposals over the past two days have left the outcome uncertain, with the next sessions potentially easing or prolonging regulatory ambiguity.
Key Support Levels and Volume Trends
The 12-hour chart indicates Bitcoin consolidating just below the $120,000 level after recently setting a new all-time high at $123,200. Despite this minor pullback, Bitcoin maintains a solid bullish structure, trading well above all key moving averages: the 50 SMA at $110,602, the 100 SMA at $108,105, and the 200 SMA at $102,178. These levels serve as dynamic support zones, highlighting the ongoing trend’s strength.
Recently, there has been a significant spike in trading volume, with consecutive high-volume sessions accompanying both the rise to new highs and the subsequent correction. This increase in volume suggests heightened market activity, likely representing a blend of profit-taking and fresh inflows from traders positioned for further upward movement.
Thus far, the consolidation seems healthy. As long as Bitcoin remains above the short-term moving averages and the $109,300 mark, the market structure favors continued bullishness. Successfully reclaiming the $120,000 level could pave the way for another attempt at new highs, potentially targeting the $130,000–$137,000 region.
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