Bitcoin’s Market Phase: Navigating Uncertainty with Underlying Strength
Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal stage after experiencing a turbulent week characterized by significant market movements and increased uncertainty. The cryptocurrency recently reached an all-time high of $112,000, but has since entered a phase of consolidation, fluctuating around crucial support and resistance levels. The market is now keenly observing for indications of the next major move, which could either be a breakout to new heights or a more profound correction.
Despite the cooling off of prices, on-chain data indicates a strong foundation within the market. According to insights from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s average Netflow has been negative since March 10, 2025. This metric monitors the balance between BTC deposits to exchanges (usually indicative of selling) and withdrawals (often linked to accumulation). A consistent net negative flow suggests that more Bitcoin is being withdrawn than deposited.
Currently, around 3,600 BTC are being withdrawn from exchanges daily by retail traders. This ongoing trend is widely perceived as a bullish signal, reflecting investor confidence and reduced selling pressure. It also suggests that many market participants are opting to hold their Bitcoin rather than trade or liquidate at current prices. As Bitcoin stabilizes near critical levels, this persistent withdrawal trend could provide the impetus needed for the next upward movement in the ongoing bull cycle.
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Between Uncertainty and Strength: Bitcoin’s Netflows Indicate Accumulation
Bitcoin is presently navigating a period of high uncertainty, struggling to establish a clear directional trend. After peaking near $112,000, the price has entered a volatile consolidation phase, with bulls seeking a breakout above the all-time high and bears anticipating a sharp correction. The market sentiment remains divided, fueled by increasing volatility and rising macroeconomic risks.
One of the primary external factors impacting the crypto market is the bond market. Rising U.S. Treasury yields are increasing systemic pressure and influencing investor behavior across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. As yields rise, the cost of capital increases, making speculative investments more susceptible to broader economic signals.
Despite the uncertainty, on-chain data continues to point towards strong underlying demand for Bitcoin. According to top analyst Axel Adler and insights from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s average Netflow has turned negative since March 10, 2025. This indicates that each day, approximately 3,600 more BTC are being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited, signaling sustained accumulation by retail investors and long-term holders.
This trend, highlighted in green, contrasts sharply with the peak Netflow observed in December 2022, when over 12,100 BTC flowed into exchanges, indicating heavy sell pressure. The current negative flow suggests a healthier market structure, where supply on exchanges is steadily declining. While the price may lack short-term direction, this persistent withdrawal trend supports a bullish outlook over the medium term, reflecting reduced selling pressure and long-term investor confidence.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Holding Key Support Amid Bullish Attempts
Bitcoin is currently trading at $105,338, demonstrating resilience after testing the $103,600 support level. This area has held firm despite recent volatility and remains a critical demand zone for bulls to defend. The chart indicates BTC bouncing off the 200-period SMA (simple moving average), with a mild uptrend forming on the 4-hour timeframe. The price is now attempting to reclaim the 34 EMA (exponential moving average) at $105,554 and challenge the 50 and 100 SMAs, which converge near $106,900 and serve as dynamic resistance levels.
The recent lower high around $109,300 remains a significant obstacle for bullish continuation. A decisive breakout above this level would likely signal a fresh attempt at the all-time high near $112,000. Conversely, losing the $103,600 mark could lead to a deeper correction, potentially pulling BTC back toward the $100,000 psychological level.
Volume has been relatively muted during the latest bounce, suggesting that the move may lack conviction unless accompanied by a surge in buying pressure. For now, Bitcoin remains range-bound between $103,600 and $109,300, with bulls needing to sustain higher lows and reclaim short-term moving averages to regain momentum. The coming days will be pivotal in determining whether BTC resumes its uptrend or enters a broader consolidation phase.
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