Ethereum’s Resistance Test Amid Market Recovery
Ethereum is currently navigating critical resistance levels as the broader cryptocurrency market strives to recover from recent volatility and downward trends. After enduring weeks of corrective price movements, ETH is showing signs of stabilization. Buyers are gradually gaining momentum, reassessing market conditions and liquidity flows within the digital asset landscape.
Potential Rebound and Underlying Market Shifts
While the price action hints at a possible short-term recovery, data from the derivatives market suggests deeper structural changes may be occurring. According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain, the ETH Binance Futures Smart Money CVD (90D) indicator is beginning to reveal significant shifts in demand dynamics within Ethereum’s derivatives market on Binance.
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This indicator tracks the cumulative difference between aggressive buy and sell orders executed through market orders. As these orders represent traders eager to execute trades immediately, the metric offers valuable insights into real-time demand pressure from active market participants.
Recent data shows that the aggressive buying volume in Ethereum futures on Binance reached approximately $4.583 billion, while the aggressive selling volume was around $4.576 billion. Consequently, the daily Taker Delta recorded a positive value of roughly $7.15 million, signaling a slight advantage for buyers during that session as the market attempted to regain momentum.
Smart Money CVD and Persistent Selling Pressure
Despite the recent session favoring buyers, Ethereum’s derivatives market structure remains inclined towards selling pressure. The 90-day rolling Smart Money CVD still shows a negative reading of about -$5.71 billion, highlighting that aggressive selling activity has surpassed aggressive buying over the past three months.
In practical terms, this indicates that market participants using market orders have been more inclined to sell Ethereum rather than accumulate it during this period. Sustained negative CVD values typically reflect a market environment dominated by sellers closing positions or initiating short trades.
However, analysts caution that negative CVD readings do not automatically imply immediate downward price movement. Market dynamics can sometimes yield a different outcome through a mechanism known as liquidity absorption. In such scenarios, large buyers strategically place substantial limit orders in the order book, allowing them to absorb selling pressure without significantly impacting the price in the short term. This behavior can establish a temporary equilibrium where aggressive sellers continue to target bids while patient buyers gradually accumulate supply. If this absorption process persists, it may eventually reduce sell-side pressure and lay the groundwork for a potential shift in market momentum.
Ethereum’s Long-Term Support Zone Test
On the weekly chart, Ethereum is attempting to stabilize after a prolonged corrective phase that began following its rejection near the $4,800 region in 2025. Since that peak, the price action has formed a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a sustained bearish structure across higher timeframes.
The recent selloff pushed ETH sharply below the $2,400–$2,600 region, which previously served as a crucial support area during earlier consolidation phases. This breakdown triggered a rapid decline toward the $1,800 zone, where buyers finally stepped in, producing a short-term rebound.
Ethereum is currently trading around the $2,100 level, a price area that seems to act as a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. From a technical perspective, this region now functions as a pivotal level. Sustained price action above this zone could enable ETH to attempt a recovery toward the $2,600 resistance area, where the 100-week moving average is currently trending.
However, the broader structure remains fragile. The 200-week moving average sits slightly below the current price and may serve as a key long-term support level if selling pressure resurfaces. Volume data also shows elevated activity during the recent decline, suggesting that the market experienced a significant liquidation phase. Whether this represents capitulation or merely a pause in the downtrend will depend on Ethereum’s ability to reclaim higher resistance levels in the coming weeks.
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