Long-Term Bitcoin Price Prediction: A Look Ahead
Bitcoin’s Potential Path to $145,000: An Analyst’s Perspective
A seasoned trading analyst has recently shared insights on Bitcoin’s (BTC) future price trajectory, suggesting that the cryptocurrency may not hit the $145,000 mark until the current market cycle undergoes a complete reset. This viewpoint is grounded in a comprehensive analysis of high-timeframe technical indicators, as highlighted in a TradingView report dated January 30.
Technical Indicators and Market Cycles
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The analysis from TradingShot indicates that Bitcoin is possibly entering the initial phase of an extensive bear cycle. This conclusion is drawn from quarterly chart signals, where Bitcoin has surpassed a bearish cross on the Relative Vigor Index (RVGI). In the context of higher timeframes, the RVGI serves as a pivotal cycle-defining indicator rather than a short-term momentum gauge.
Historical Patterns and Future Predictions
In examining previous Bitcoin cycles, TradingShot observed that similar three-month bearish crosses typically appeared at the onset of bear markets, rather than at the cycle’s nadir. Historical data reveals a recurring pattern, with RVGI bearish crosses emerging approximately every 15 to 16 quarters, aligning with Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Consequently, market bottoms have historically materialized about four quarters post-crossing, suggesting roughly a year of downward movement or consolidation. Based on this recurring pattern, the current cycle hints at a potential bottom around October 2026.
Momentum Indicators and Long-Term Trends
Momentum indicators lend credence to this analysis, as the quarterly RSI peaked one quarter before the RVGI bearish cross and faced rejection at a persistent declining trendline that has restricted momentum for nearly seven years. This pattern mirrors previous cycle transitions that preceded prolonged corrections, indicating that macro bullish momentum might have already been depleted, even though short-term rallies remain possible.
Key Bitcoin Price Levels to Monitor
From a price perspective, TradingShot anticipates that any gains in the upcoming quarters will be corrective in nature. Historically, Bitcoin has refrained from achieving new all-time highs between a quarterly RVGI bearish cross and the eventual cycle bottom, instead spending time stabilizing and rebuilding momentum.
In this framework, the $145,000 target is assigned to the next bull cycle. Assuming a bottom forms in late 2026, a prolonged accumulation phase extending into mid-2027 is likely before a sustained breakout occurs. Consequently, TradingShot projects late 2027 or 2028 as the most plausible timeframe for Bitcoin to reach $145,000, contingent upon quarterly momentum shifting decisively upward once more.
Current Bitcoin Price Analysis
As of the latest update, Bitcoin was trading at $82,444, marking a slight 0.2% decline over the past 24 hours, while the leading cryptocurrency experienced nearly an 8% drop over the past week.
Overall, Bitcoin continues to exhibit bearish tendencies, trading significantly below its crucial trend indicators. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) hovers around $89,828, with the 200-day SMA positioned much higher at approximately $104,184. With the price beneath both averages and the short-term SMA below the long-term one, momentum remains negative, suggesting an ongoing corrective or consolidation phase instead of a renewed uptrend.
However, the downward pressure appears to be easing, as the 14-day RSI stands at 33.4, just above oversold levels. This indicates weak momentum but also suggests that selling intensity is moderating, potentially paving the way for stabilization in the near future.
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