With the upcoming presidential term set to begin on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump has laid out numerous promises aimed at securing his election as the next President of the United States. These promises have sparked a mix of skepticism and cautious optimism within the market, which is carefully evaluating their feasibility.
Speculations and Market Sentiments
Much of the speculation surrounding Trump’s promises is being actively discussed on platforms like Polymarket, a leading prediction market that gained significant traction during the previous elections. The market’s response to Trump’s proposed policies provides intriguing insights into public perception.
High-Stakes Predictions and Market Odds
Among the many promises made by Trump, the market has placed a 91% likelihood on the enforcement of a deportation executive action within his first 100 days in office. In contrast, the prospect of the Ukraine war concluding before his inauguration holds a mere 14% chance, reflecting the market’s skepticism.
Crypto-Related Commitments and Their Implications
Trump’s promises have extended into the realm of cryptocurrency, with notable pledges such as the creation of a national Bitcoin (BTC) reserve and the potential pardon of Ross Ulbricht. The market currently rates Ulbricht’s pardon with a 71% probability, while the Bitcoin reserve initiative is valued at $0.37 per “Yes” share, highlighting varying levels of confidence in these outcomes.
Evaluating Crypto Market Reactions to Trump’s Promises
Beyond the aforementioned crypto-focused commitments, Trump has also vowed to dismiss Gary Gensler on his first day in office. This announcement, made during the Bitcoin Conference 2024, was met with enthusiastic support, particularly given Gensler’s perceived anti-crypto stance.
The Feasibility of Firing SEC Officials
Despite Trump’s bold claim, the technicalities of the presidential office prevent him from directly firing a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) employee. However, he could potentially demote Gensler, stripping him of the Chairman role. Interestingly, Gensler has hinted at the possibility of resigning before Trump’s inauguration, along with a shift in New York’s stringent anti-crypto policies.
Potential Bitcoin Market Surge
Experts are forecasting that Bitcoin’s value could soar to the $100,000 mark during Trump’s presidency, spurred by a predicted “biggest bull run ever” in the cryptocurrency market. This optimism is fueled by various market signals, suggesting a promising future for Bitcoin investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis and Market Trends
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $90,690, marking an 18.82% increase over the past week since the election. This surge in Bitcoin’s value is also propelling other cryptocurrencies, hinting at the potential arrival of an “Altseason.”
Contrasting Views on Bitcoin’s Trajectory
Despite the optimism, Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff has cautioned that Trump may not fulfill his Bitcoin-related promises. Schiff remarked, “Bitcoin is rising despite the surge in the dollar and bond yields, as speculators wager on Trump becoming the Bitcoin president. However, this is one of several promises Trump might not keep.”
As the market continues to react to Trump’s promises, investors and analysts alike remain vigilant, assessing the potential impact of these commitments on the broader economic landscape.
