The Unveiling of Official Trump (TRUMP) Meme Coin: An Analysis
As the world of cryptocurrency continues to evolve, a significant event is on the horizon for U.S. President Donald Trump’s meme coin, Official Trump (TRUMP), built on the Solana (SOL) network. A substantial token unlock is scheduled for April 18, releasing 40 million tokens, which represents 20% of its circulating supply. As of April 14, with the current price of TRUMP, this unlock holds an estimated value of $321 million.
The Impact of a Cliff Unlock on TRUMP’s Market
The forthcoming release will occur as a cliff unlock, a strategy where all tokens become available simultaneously. According to insights from crypto analytics platform Tokenomist, this approach could potentially inundate the market with tokens, thereby intensifying selling pressure.
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Post-unlock, approximately $4 million worth of TRUMP tokens will be unlocked daily until the subsequent vesting event. This may sustain supply-side pressure unless counterbalanced by a corresponding increase in demand.
From Peak Hype to Price Collapse
Since its inception in January 2025, the journey of the TRUMP token has been marked by volatility. It skyrocketed to a peak of $73.43 within just two days of its launch but subsequently plummeted by over 70% in the following weeks.
This dramatic downturn has resulted in over 813,000 wallets experiencing losses estimated at $2 billion within merely 19 days of its launch, as reported by Chainalysis. Meanwhile, the creators of the project reportedly accrued more than $350 million during the price surge. As of April 14, TRUMP was valued at $8.02.
On-chain data reflects a dwindling interest among investors. The number of wallet holders has decreased to 637,235, marking a 0.3% decline over the past week and a notable reduction from the 800,000+ holders recorded in January, according to data sourced from a Dune Analytics dashboard by Finbold.
Bearish Sentiment in the Derivatives Market
Amidst growing apprehensions leading up to the unlock, TRUMP’s open interest (OI)-weighted funding rate experienced a sharp decline on April 14, turning negative and signaling increasing bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. The funding rate dropped to -0.0282%, coinciding with a dip in spot prices.
A negative funding rate typically indicates that short positions are compensating long positions, suggesting that traders are increasingly anticipating further downward pressure. This trend may be indicative of rising skepticism regarding TRUMP’s ability to maintain its value amid an expanding token supply and waning momentum.
This downturn in TRUMP token’s value reflects a broader wave of disillusionment across the cryptocurrency landscape following Donald Trump’s inauguration. Despite initial optimism that his return to the White House would herald a new era of digital asset growth, the market has faced significant volatility.
According to Finbold’s Q1 2025 Cryptocurrency Market Report, the number of Bitcoin millionaire addresses declined by nearly 20% between January 20, the day of Trump’s inauguration, and March 31, the end of Q1.
During this period, 34,737 Bitcoin millionaire wallets vanished, underscoring the extent of market erosion even among Bitcoin’s wealthiest holders.
These concurrent declines underscore a growing disconnect between political enthusiasm and market fundamentals, raising questions about the actual influence that even the most prominent endorsements can exert on digital assets.
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