Comprehensive Analysis: Bitcoin’s Current Market Dynamics
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Bitcoin’s Market Struggles: A Deep Dive into Recent Trends
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Recent data from the weekly price charts indicate that Bitcoin has experienced a substantial decline of over 6% following widespread market liquidations. Despite this setback, the flagship cryptocurrency has shown signs of consolidation over the past day, hinting at potential recovery prospects. However, a thorough on-chain analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s apparent resilience might be deceptive, and the cryptocurrency could be on the brink of a challenging period.
Bitcoin’s 30-Day Cumulative Realized Losses Since October 2023
In a detailed analysis shared by XWIN Research Japan on CryptoQuant, the current on-chain status of Bitcoin is examined, with particular emphasis on the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss metric. This analysis reveals that Bitcoin has encountered a net realized loss on a 30-day basis for the first time since October 2023.
Unlike the brief losses witnessed in 2023 that were swiftly recovered, the current downturn is more extensive and enduring, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics. Currently, investors appear less inclined to “buy the dip” or to hold onto their Bitcoin amidst price fluctuations. Instead, they are more willing to accept losses, indicating a cautious market environment. It’s important to note, however, that this phase does not necessarily foreshadow a market crash. Rather, it signals a possible shift towards a more volatile period for Bitcoin, independent of speculative behavior.
Realized Profits Indicate a Mature Bull Market
XWIN Research further supports their analysis by examining the trend in realized profits. According to their findings, realized profits reached a peak of approximately 1.2 million BTC in March 2024 but gradually declined to 1.1 million BTC by December 2024. As of July 2025, these profits had fallen sharply to 517,000 BTC, indicating a notable decrease in profit-taking activities within the market.
This decline is even more pronounced compared to the lower 331,000 BTC recorded in October. Despite an increase in Bitcoin prices, the lack of significant upward momentum highlights a late-stage bull market. This pattern mirrors the trend observed during the 2021-2022 bull run, where realized profits steadily decreased before Bitcoin prices turned bearish.
On an annual scale, net realized profits have contracted significantly from 4.4 million BTC to 2.5 million BTC between October 2025 and early 2026. This trend resembles the conditions that preceded the 2022 bear market.
In conclusion, Bitcoin is transitioning from a mature bull phase to a more volatile market environment. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is valued at $89,462.
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