According to a note from Kalshi’s market research team, there appears to be a gap between the prediction market and polls. The team suggests that this gap can be explained by Harris’ sliding popularity with key demographics.
The prediction market and polls are often used to gauge public opinion and predict outcomes of events. However, discrepancies between the two can occur due to various factors, including changes in candidate popularity.
As Harris’ popularity shifts among key demographics, it is reflected in the prediction market, which may not always align with poll results. This discrepancy highlights the importance of considering multiple sources of data when making predictions or analyzing public sentiment.
Ultimately, understanding the reasons behind differences in prediction markets and polls can provide valuable insights into public opinion and potential outcomes of events. Kalshi’s market research team’s note serves as a reminder to carefully evaluate all available data sources to make informed decisions.
