An In-Depth Analysis of the Alleged Qubic Takeover of the Monero Blockchain

Introduction

The cryptocurrency ecosystem has encountered a significant stir due to assertions from Qubic, a project spearheaded by Sergey Ivancheglo, one of IOTA’s co-founders. The claim centers on Qubic allegedly securing control over the majority of Monero’s blockchain hashrate. This pivotal moment reportedly occurred on August 11, 2025, after a concentrated effort spanning several weeks. This development has raised alarms regarding the security of Monero’s network and highlighted the susceptibility of mid-tier Proof-of-Work blockchains to hostile takeovers driven by economic incentives.

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The Dynamics of the Monero Situation

The Qubic team states that the maneuver was executed using a “useful proof-of-work” (uPoW) model. Under this framework, CPU mining power is directed towards Monero, while Qubic converts the mined XMR into USDT to either purchase and burn QUBIC tokens or reward its validators. This economic strategy effectively diverted a significant portion of Monero’s mining resources away from other pools, escalating from less than 2% in May to an asserted 51% by August. Qubic frames this as a strategic experiment meant to explore how economic incentives can shift control over a blockchain network, rather than an attempt to dismantle Monero.

Reports and discussions on the social platform X indicate a six-block reorganization on the Monero blockchain, suggesting that Qubic holds considerable hashrate control. If Qubic were to sustain majority control, the consequences could be dire. With over 50% control of the blockchain’s hashrate, Qubic could theoretically censor transactions, perform double-spending, and reorganize blocks at its discretion, potentially reversing confirmed transactions and compromising the blockchain’s reliability.

Expert Insights on the Situation

The response from the Monero developer community emphasizes that chain reorganizations alone do not conclusively indicate a successful 51% attack. Luke Parker, the lead developer at SeraiDEX, clarified that a six-block-deep network reorganization with orphaned blocks does not automatically equate to a 51% attack. However, it does indicate that a mining group with substantial hashrate experienced a stroke of luck.

Charles Guillemet, CTO of Ledger, also expressed concern over the incident. Guillemet cautioned that maintaining such dominance could incur costs upward of $75 million daily in equipment and operations, potentially eroding confidence in Monero almost immediately.

There is a palpable skepticism within the Monero community regarding Qubic’s sustained control. Blockchain engineer Leonardo Faoro noted, in a post shared by Monero founder Riccardo Spagni on platform X, that miners do not require a full 51% hashrate to cause reorgs; about 35% of the hashrate, combined with favorable timing, is sufficient.

Market Reactions and Implications

The market swiftly mirrored the unease following Qubic’s assertion of majority control over Monero. The cryptocurrency’s value experienced a downturn, dropping to a low of $245. At present, Monero is trading at $247, reflecting a 5.3% decrease over the past 24 hours and a 15.2% drop over the past week.

Conversely, Qubic’s native token witnessed a positive trend. At the time of writing, QUBIC has risen by 20.5% over the past 24 hours.

Conclusion

This unfolding drama within the cryptocurrency space underscores the complexities and vulnerabilities inherent in blockchain networks, particularly those relying on Proof-of-Work mechanisms. As the situation evolves, the importance of robust network security and the potential impact of economic incentives on blockchain control remain critical topics for ongoing discussion and analysis.

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