Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply: A Forecast for the Future
In a comprehensive analysis by Fidelity Digital Assets, it is predicted that Bitcoin’s (BTC) illiquid supply might escalate to an impressive 8.3 million BTC by the second quarter of 2032, accounting for approximately 42% of the total supply. This significant shift could lead to unprecedented price surges for the digital currency.
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Projected Surge in Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply
Understanding the BTC Cohorts
Fidelity’s research utilized two primary BTC cohorts to assess the potential increase in illiquid supply. The first cohort comprises Bitcoin that has remained unmoved for over seven years, indicating a strong tendency towards illiquidity. The second cohort focuses on public enterprises holding a minimum of 1,000 BTC.
Historical Trends and Insights
Since the inception of tracking in 2016, the first cohort has shown a consistent quarterly increase in illiquidity. A notable observation is that public companies have only once experienced a quarterly decline in their BTC holdings since 2020. As of mid-2023, these entities collectively possess 830,000 BTC, illustrating a pronounced preference for holding over trading.
Significantly, a mere 30 companies control 97% of the BTC owned by public firms, highlighting a trend of concentrated holdings. This growing inclination towards holding Bitcoin rather than transacting has been evident since the third quarter of 2024.
Future Projections
By the close of the second quarter of 2025, Bitcoin’s circulating supply was around 19.8 million. Projections suggest that by 2032, nearly 8.3 million BTC will be classified as illiquid. Furthermore, as more companies continue to invest in Bitcoin, this trend of increasing illiquidity is expected to persist.
Fidelity’s analysis also traces the evolution of Bitcoin’s supply dynamics from 2010, demonstrating how illiquid supply has continued to grow, especially since 2020.
Continued Growth in BTC Adoption
Corporate Embrace of Bitcoin
MicroStrategy, now known simply as Strategy, has been at the forefront of corporate Bitcoin adoption, recently increasing its holdings by purchasing an additional 525 BTC. This trend is mirrored by other global firms. For instance, Metaplanet, a Japanese investment company, plans to raise $880 million to acquire more BTC. Similarly, Robin Energy, based in Cyprus, has allocated $5 million specifically for Bitcoin investments.
Recent data reveals that public companies’ total Bitcoin holdings have surpassed one million, underscoring Bitcoin’s growing reputation as a dependable store of value. As of the latest reports, Bitcoin is trading at $115,767, reflecting a 1% increase within the past 24 hours.
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