Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin’s Long-Term Price Trends

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Analyzing Bitcoin’s Predictable Long-Term Cycles

While Bitcoin’s price movements may seem erratic on shorter timeframes, a prominent cryptocurrency analyst has identified a discernible pattern on larger timeframes. This analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s price trajectory is more predictable than it appears.

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In a recent discussion on social media platform X, the analyst, Tony, presented a macro cycle framework. He believes this framework effectively identifies the optimal times for accumulating Bitcoin and determining exit strategies during cycle peaks. His insights draw from historical data on bull and bear market cycles dating back to 2015, proposing that the current cycle aligns closely with these established patterns.

The 1,066-Day Bull Market and 365-Day Bear Market

Tony’s observations reveal a striking consistency in Bitcoin’s market cycles over the past ten years. Each significant bull market tends to last about 1,066 days, followed by a bear market phase of approximately 365 days.

One notable example spans from January 8, 2015, to December 17, 2017—a 1,066-day period that culminated near the cycle’s peak. This was succeeded by a year-long decline lasting until December 2018. This pattern repeated from December 16, 2018, to November 10, 2021, marking another 1,066-day bull run, which was followed by a 365-day bear market concluding in November 2022.

According to Tony, the current cycle is mirroring this pattern. The recent bull market, beginning on November 22, 2022, is anticipated to continue until October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin is expected to reach a peak price of $126,080. This period, once again, spans approximately 1,066 days.

Projections for Future Trends: Incorporating this cycle framework, Tony predicts the subsequent bear phase will occur from October 7, 2025, to October 5, 2026, marking another 365-day corrective period. During this time, Bitcoin is likely to experience a series of lower highs and lower lows, potentially persisting until early October 2026. It is important to note that these predictions may exhibit a variance of 10 to 20 days.

Tony’s analysis, illustrated in his chart, distinguishes these cycles with green zones for expansion and red zones for correction. Historical peaks, such as $69,000 in 2021 and $126,000 in 2025, are prominently marked. The projection anticipates movements to $40,000 and eventually a surge to $200,000 before the next red correction zone emerges.

Potential for Further Market Downturn

In a subsequent analysis, Tony cautioned that Bitcoin might not have reached its final bottom. He anticipates further declines until Bitcoin approaches a strong support region between $40,000 and $50,000, with a potential bottom forming between mid-September and late November 2026.

This analysis contrasts two emotional extremes: early investors feeling optimistic about acquiring perceived bargains during market declines and later entrants succumbing to fear as prices reach deep support levels.

Currently, Bitcoin’s price stands at $66,950, representing a 47% decline from its October 2025 all-time high, yet it remains significantly above the $40,000-$50,000 range identified as a potential bottom. This projection suggests Bitcoin could still experience a further decline of 40% to 50% before establishing a firm bottom.

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