Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have experienced relatively stagnant trading for much of this year. However, there are signs that a recovery trend could emerge soon. A prominent crypto founder has recently pinpointed the optimal and least favorable times to invest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. According to his forecast, the most challenging period for Bitcoin might be behind us, paving the way for a potentially prosperous phase ahead.
Identifying the Optimal and Least Favorable Times for Bitcoin Investment
Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, a hedge fund specializing in digital assets, recently shared his insights on X (formerly known as Twitter). He discussed the best and worst times to be invested in Bitcoin, supported by a screenshot that detailed Bitcoin’s quarterly returns.
The data reveals that Bitcoin’s best-performing quarter is the final quarter of the year, whereas the third quarter is the least favorable. Currently, Bitcoin is enduring its historically weakest quarter, suggesting that the downtrend may be approaching its end with September nearly over.
Historically, the average return for Bitcoin in the third quarter stands at +5.39%, the lowest among all quarters. The second quarter, although better, has an average return of +26.89%. Notably, the fourth quarter has shown negative median returns of -4.64%, making it the only quarter with a negative median return.
Conversely, the fourth quarter has consistently been bullish, boasting average returns of +88.84% and median returns of +56.90%. With only a few weeks left in the third quarter, Edwards is optimistic. “If you are still here, congratulations. You made it through the worst time to be in Bitcoin. The best lies ahead,” he remarked.
Potential for Bitcoin to Reach New All-Time Highs in October
Edwards’ prediction that the worst is over aligns with Bitcoin’s monthly returns data available on the Coinglass website. Historically, October, November, and December have been some of the most favorable months for Bitcoin, and this year appears to follow the same pattern.
If historical trends persist, Bitcoin could see an average price increase of approximately 20% in October. Such a surge could set Bitcoin on a trajectory towards a new all-time high. Should the bullish trend continue, Bitcoin might achieve a new all-time high by the end of 2024.
With Bitcoin bulls reclaiming control of the price, the outlook for the cryptocurrency market is increasingly optimistic. Investors who have weathered the recent downturn may soon reap significant rewards as the market conditions improve.
