Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, has recently unveiled a compelling report forecasting a potential surge in Bitcoin’s (BTC) price, aiming for the $80,000 mark by year-end. Highlighting the pivotal dynamics that propelled Bitcoin to its all-time high in March, Hougan outlines several factors that could act as significant bullish catalysts, driving the cryptocurrency to unprecedented heights.
Factors That Could Propel Bitcoin to $80,000
On October 9, Hougan released an insightful blog post detailing Bitcoin’s forthcoming bullish trajectory. According to his analysis, the First Quarter (Q1) of 2024 marked a highly favorable period for Bitcoin, with its price climbing to new all-time highs above $73,000. This surge was largely fueled by the demand generated from the launch of Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
Currently, Hougan holds the view that BTC possesses the potential to surpass its existing all-time high and advance towards the $80,000 threshold before 2024 concludes. He identifies three primary conditions necessary for the cryptocurrency to excel this year.
Political Influence on Bitcoin’s Price
A significant factor identified by Hougan is the outcome of the impending United States Presidential elections, which he believes could greatly impact Bitcoin’s market dynamics. The Bitwise CIO suggests that a Republican victory would likely benefit the crypto industry, given Former US President Donald Trump’s increasing support and advocacy for digital assets.
Conversely, Hougan points out that the Democratic party’s stance on cryptocurrencies has been more cautious. For instance, Senator Elizabeth Warren, a prominent Democrat, is well-known for her critical stance on crypto, frequently pushing for policies that could constrain the industry. Based on this, Hougan asserts that for the crypto market to flourish, political interference should be minimized. He predicts that absent a Democratic sweep of both Congress and the White House, BTC could rally to $80,000.
Monetary Policies and Global Stimulus
Hougan also suggests that monetary policies, such as two rate cuts and a global stimulus, could act as powerful catalysts for Bitcoin’s price escalation to $80,000. He posits that an additional 50 basis points (bps) in easing from the Federal Reserve (FED), coupled with further fiscal stimulus from China, could trigger a significant Bitcoin rally in the fourth quarter.
No More Bearish Surprises
In his blog post, Hougan emphasizes the importance of the market experiencing a period devoid of bearish surprises, such as hacks, new lawsuits, or the sudden influx of previously locked coins into the market. Such events, he notes, typically exert downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price movements.
For example, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively range-bound, failing to rally significantly after the release of previously locked Bitcoin from the collapsed exchange, Mt.Gox. Hougan predicts that if the market can avoid unexpected negative events throughout the year, Bitcoin could potentially achieve the $80,000 target and beyond.
