In a captivating development within the decentralized prediction market sphere, a researcher has leveled allegations against a crypto bettor, known by the pseudonym ‘Fredi9999’ or simply ‘Fredi,’ accusing them of significantly influencing the odds for former President Donald Trump on the crypto platform Polymarket. Over the past two weeks, Trump’s probability of winning has seen a dramatic rise from being almost equal to Vice President Kamala Harris to a commanding 60.7%, while Harris’s odds have decreased to 39.3%.
Unveiling the Alleged Manipulation on Polymarket
The accusations were brought to the forefront by Domer, a pseudonymous political crypto bettor, who detailed his findings in an extensive thread on the platform X. Domer disclosed: “A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 — the person or entity — who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world. Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive guy! We’ll get back to that.”
The Mechanics of the Alleged Market Manipulation
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Domer expanded on the mechanics of the alleged manipulation, indicating that Fredi has been making significant bets exclusively on Trump, reportedly exceeding a staggering $25 million. This massive influx of capital has introduced a premium of approximately 5% to 8% on Trump’s odds, making bets on Trump more expensive while simultaneously reducing the cost of betting on Harris by a similar margin. According to Domer, this strategy disrupts the supply and demand equilibrium on Polymarket, resulting in skewed pricing that does not align with the broader market sentiment.
Investigation into Multiple Accounts
Further investigation by Domer revealed that Fredi9999 is not limited to a single account. Instead, multiple accounts—dubbed PrincessCaro, Michie, and Theo—are believed to be under the control of the same entity, collectively holding positions worth around $28 million. The synchronization of large deposits from the crypto exchange Kraken, typically in increments of $500,000 or $1 million, into these accounts before deploying funds solely on Trump-related markets suggests a coordinated effort to influence market outcomes.
Supporting Evidence from Other Researchers
Supporting this claim, another researcher, identified as @fozzydiablo, identified patterns across the four accounts that imply a single user’s control. Domer referenced these findings, linking to a detailed analysis. It was observed that a single entity has been purchasing all Trump-related bets on Polymarket, totaling $26 million, indicating a potentially orchestrated strategy.
Potential Identities and Motivations Behind Fredi’s Actions
Domer also speculated on the possible identity and motivations behind Fredi’s actions. Observations regarding the linguistic patterns in comments made by Fredi and associated accounts—such as the use of both British and American English spellings and peculiar spacing around punctuation—hint at a potential French origin. Domer posited: “AI thinks the writing/spelling/weird misspellings points to a Frenchman who has learned British English and spent time in America.”
However, Domer acknowledged the possibility of ulterior motives, including the scenario where Fredi might be part of a larger scheme or even an elaborate role-playing act designed to obscure true intentions. The researcher emphasized the unprecedented nature of a $25 million all-in bet on a single candidate, highlighting the necessity for further investigation to uncover underlying motives.
Criticism and Historical Precedents
This revelation comes amid criticism from Hasu, a strategic advisor to crypto project Lido Finance and strategy lead at Flashbots. He remarked via X: “Polymarket is good, yes, but I feel like it’s time to call them out on their misleading reporting and the giant shadow thrown by the media just makes it seem that way. And this is assuming there is 0 fake volume on Polymarket.”
Historically, significant individual bets have occasionally influenced prediction markets. Domer referenced past instances from the 2008 and 2012 US presidential elections, where single large bettors attempted to sway market odds for John McCain and Mitt Romney, respectively. Both instances ultimately did not alter the election outcomes, leading to skepticism about the efficacy and impact of such large-scale bets.
Conclusion: The Broader Implications
Domer concluded his analysis by questioning the broader implications of Fredi’s actions: “Why do I care about this? Good question! It’s important to know who you’re betting against. Is this a super smart trading firm and I should be scared? Is this an idiot betting on what he wants to happen and I should be happy? Is this just a lame attempt to give the impression that Trump is winning by a lot with 0 other motives? It’s hard to figure out what is going on here.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $67,646.
