Cardano’s Price Rebound: An In-Depth Analysis and Future Predictions
After beginning 2025 on a slow note, Cardano (ADA) has made a remarkable comeback. Initially, the cryptocurrency saw a 6% decline since the start of the year, unable to regain traction after January 20 when it last approached the $1 threshold. Nevertheless, Cardano has recently surged by 11% in just one day, currently trading at $0.789, amid growing speculations about a potential Cardano exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Analyzing the Forces Behind Cardano’s Price Movement
Major Catalysts for ADA’s Price Fluctuations
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The ongoing discussions surrounding a possible Cardano ETF have emerged as a key catalyst for ADA’s recent price movements. NYSE Arca has submitted a 19b-4 form to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), seeking approval to list and trade shares of the Grayscale Cardano Trust. The approval of this proposal could significantly enhance institutional interest, providing a regulated avenue for major investors to invest in ADA.
According to insights from the advanced ChatGPT-4o model, such an approval would mark Grayscale’s initial standalone Cardano investment product, potentially driving mainstream adoption and increasing market inflows. However, the AI model also highlights the risks of regulatory delays or rejections, which could result in a negative market reaction as expectations shift.
Analyzing Derivative Data: A Mixed Perspective
The analysis of derivative data reveals a cautiously optimistic outlook for ADA. Trading volume has experienced a significant surge of 76.95%, reaching $1.91 billion, while open interest has increased by 19.17% to $733.45 million, indicating heightened market engagement. The long/short ratio on Binance stands at 2.1417, and a wave of short liquidations points to the possibility of a short squeeze, further bolstering bullish sentiment.
However, a dramatic 92.94% decrease in options volume and $2.81 million in long liquidations over the past 12 hours underscore ongoing uncertainty. While momentum seems to favor further gains, ADA must maintain key support levels and avoid excessive long liquidations to confirm a sustainable breakout.
Technical analyst Ali Martinez notes that ADA is currently testing a crucial support zone between $0.67 and $0.81. A decisive hold above this range could facilitate a robust rebound, paving the way for further upward movement if buyers continue to dominate the market.
ChatGPT’s Forecast for ADA in Q1 2025
Taking into account both derivative data and current market momentum, ChatGPT-4o forecasts that ADA could continue its upward trajectory, provided the optimism around a potential ETF approval persists and key technical levels remain intact. The AI model predicts that maintaining a position above its critical support range, combined with increasing institutional interest, could propel ADA to a range of $1.30 to $1.50 by the end of the first quarter of 2025.
Conversely, regulatory obstacles or a rise in long liquidations could dampen momentum, potentially pushing ADA down to $0.70 or lower if selling pressure becomes more pronounced. This projection aligns with forecasts from Rose Premium Signals, which have set a mid-term price target of $1.30 for Cardano, with short-term targets of $0.9837 and $1.1619.
