Bloomberg’s Optimistic Forecast for Crypto ETFs Approval
Bloomberg Intelligence experts, James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, have significantly updated their predictions for the approval of several single-asset spot-crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs). They now give a 95% probability for the approval of ETFs based on XRP, Solana (SOL), and Litecoin (LTC) by the close of 2025. This uplifted forecast was shared via Seyffart’s post on a popular social media platform on June 30th, where he stated, “Eric Balchunas and I have updated our latest odds for spot crypto ETF approvals expected by the end of 2025. We foresee an influx of new ETFs in the latter half of 2025.”
Elevated 95% Approval Odds for XRP, Solana, and Litecoin ETFs
The latest analysis assigns a 95% approval likelihood to four key segments: XRP, SOL, LTC, and a diversified “basket/index” product. This product aims to transition Grayscale, Bitwise, Hashdex, and Franklin’s multi-token vehicles into spot ETFs. All these filings have received initial Rule 19b-4 acknowledgments from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with final decisions due in early July for the basket product and mid-October 2025 for the individual funds.
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Tracking the Progress of Altcoin ETFs
Following closely are Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche, each with a 90% approval chance. The status of Sui is uncertain with a 60% probability, while Tron and Pengu tokens hold a 50% chance each, due to unresolved commodity status queries and the lack of Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated futures.
Incremental Growth in Approval Odds
The recent 95% estimation marks the third consecutive upward adjustment over three months. On June 20th, Balchunas and Seyffart elevated several altcoin ETFs to “90% or higher” after observing “notably positive” feedback from SEC staff. In April, SOL was projected at 70% and XRP at 65%, which was considered an improvement over February’s assessments below 60%. In percentage terms, XRP and LTC have seen a rise of approximately 30 points since the start of the year, while SOL has improved by 25 points.
Factors Influencing the Enhanced Outlook
The recent optimism is driven by three main factors. Firstly, the pending decision on Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) is pivotal. The SEC must decide by July 2nd whether to approve the listing of GDLC shares on NYSE Arca, a $730 million fund containing Bitcoin, Ether, and 8% combined holdings in XRP, SOL, and Cardano. Seyffart suggests that the SEC might approve the product due to its limited non-BTC/ETH allocation, stating that any delay would likely result from the SEC’s need for a comprehensive framework.
Regulatory Engagement and Dialogue
In cases where Seyffart assigns a 90% or higher probability, the corresponding token is already traded on a CFTC-regulated platform and has been implicitly recognized as a commodity by the SEC. The agency’s acknowledgment of the relevant 19b-4 filings indicates a likely perception of these altcoins as commodities.
An active exchange between issuers and regulators is another positive indicator. Multiple sponsors, such as Canary, VanEck, 21Shares, and Fidelity, have filed revised S-1 forms at the SEC’s request recently. Seyffart and Balchunas view this iterative process as similar to the pattern preceding spot-Bitcoin approval in January 2024 and spot-Ether approval seven months later.
Upcoming Deadlines for ETF Approvals
If the GDLC gains approval, attention will quickly shift to single-asset ETFs. The SEC’s final deadlines for approvals are set for October and November 2025, with Solana due by October 10th, XRP and Dogecoin by October 17th, Litecoin by October 2nd, Cardano by October 23rd, Polkadot by November 8th, Hedera by November 11th, and Avalanche by December 12th. Sui’s decision is due by December 21st, with Tron and Pengu stretching into early 2026.
Conclusion
As of now, XRP trades at $2.21, indicating a stable market scenario. The evolving regulatory landscape and Bloomberg’s positive outlook suggest a promising future for crypto ETFs, which could potentially reshape the investment landscape.
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