Despite prevailing macroeconomic challenges, Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of gearing up for a potential new all-time high (ATH), driven by promising seasonal trends in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Is a New ATH for Bitcoin Imminent?
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On October 28, Bitcoin made headlines by climbing above the $71,000 mark, igniting hopes for surpassing its previous peak of $73,737 recorded in March this year. While Bitcoin has managed to breach the $70,000 barrier on several occasions since then, it has yet to secure a fresh ATH. The cryptocurrency market is abuzz with anticipation.
Bitcoin and The US Presidential Election
A recent analysis by Bitfinex, a prominent cryptocurrency trading platform, suggests that Bitcoin could achieve a new ATH shortly after the upcoming US presidential election. Bitcoin is often perceived as a “Trump trade,” displaying a strong correlation with Donald Trump’s prospects in the election.
For instance, after a 6% decline last week, Bitcoin rebounded, reclaiming all losses as Trump’s election odds surged on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform. Currently, Trump holds a 66.1% chance of winning against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who has a 33.9% chance. Nonetheless, opinion polls indicate a closely contested race, leaving the election outcome uncertain.
Implications of a Potential Trump Victory
The possibility of a Trump victory is causing ripples in the options market. According to the report, while short-term volatility may rise as election results draw near, Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook remains promising. The report notes:
“Options expiring on key dates around the election are commanding higher premiums, with implied volatility expected to peak at 100 daily vol on November 8th, just after Election Day – indicating that the market is bracing for potential turbulence. Regardless of the election outcome, short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual though we remain confident in longer-term price appreciation.”
It is noteworthy that Bitcoin dipped to as low as $52,756 in September. However, the leading digital currency rallied by nearly 30% in October, reinforcing optimism in the “Uptober” narrative.
Seasonality Favors Bitcoin
The report underscores that Bitcoin is well-positioned to capitalize on the favorable seasonality of the fourth quarter. Historically, Q4 has been a profitable period for Bitcoin during halving years, yielding a median quarterly return of 31.34%.
Options Market and Q4 Outlook
The accumulation of call options set to expire on December 27, particularly at the $80,000 strike price, further strengthens Bitcoin’s bullish outlook for Q4 2024. The report adds:
“As options open interest climbs to new highs, the market is showing signs of positioning for a post-election surge, potentially propelling Bitcoin towards—and beyond—its all-time high of $73,666.”
In related developments earlier this month, crypto research firm K33 Research highlighted that recent positive outcomes in the FTX debacle have further boosted Bitcoin’s bullish narrative for Q4. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $71,110, marking a 3.1% increase over the past 24 hours and approximately 3.5% shy of its current ATH. Whether Bitcoin will maintain its upward momentum throughout the remainder of the quarter or face another downturn remains uncertain.
