Private wealth management brokerage Bernstein has recently made projections regarding Bitcoin (BTC) price movements, contingent on the results of the highly anticipated US Presidential elections slated for November 2024. The insights provided by Bernstein analysts shed light on how different political outcomes could influence BTC’s trajectory.
Bitcoin Could Hit New ATH If Trump Wins
According to the Bernstein report, Bitcoin is considered a “Trump trade.” A victory for former US President Donald Trump could potentially propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high (ATH). Specifically, BTC could surge to as high as $90,000 in Q4 2024, should Trump secure a win. The implication here is clear: a Trump win could reignite bullish sentiment in the market, driving Bitcoin prices to unprecedented heights.
Conversely, if the current Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins, it could pressure Bitcoin to breach its current bottom at $50,000. This scenario could result in BTC prices plummeting to test the $30,000 to $40,000 range. The contrasting outcomes highlight the significant impact of political leadership on the cryptocurrency market.
Reasons Behind the Predictions
The analysts, including Gautam Chhugani, Sanskar Chindalia, and Mahika Sapra, explained their contrasting predictions in a client note dated September 9, 2024. They emphasized that while the digital assets industry has reached out to individuals across the political spectrum, it has found more acceptance from the Trump side. The analysts noted:
“While crypto industry leaders have been more open-minded with the Harris campaign, and are hoping for a more constructive policy, we expect the delta between the two political outcomes to be wide.”
Recent developments in the crypto industry corroborate the analysts’ perspectives. For instance, in July 2024, Trump reiterated his support for the crypto industry, pledging to dismiss the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman, Gary Gensler, who is widely regarded as an anti-crypto regulatory officer. In August 2024, Trump publicly declared his intention to transform the US into the “crypto capital of the world,” criticizing the Biden administration’s continuous crackdown on crypto-related businesses.
A Lot To Do For The Democrats
While Trump enjoys a favorable opinion within the crypto community, the Democrats have significant work ahead if they aim to make substantial inroads into this voter base. However, all hope is not lost for the Democrats. Trump himself has undergone a notable transformation, evolving from a Bitcoin skeptic to a staunch supporter of digital assets.
Recent reports suggest that Kamala Harris might introduce a shift in the current Democratic regime’s stance on cryptocurrencies. Earlier this month, her political campaign began accepting donations in cryptocurrency through Coinbase’s Commerce platform, signaling a potential pivot towards a more crypto-friendly approach.
Current Bitcoin Market Status
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $55,272, marking a 2.2% increase in the past 24 hours. Whether Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs or tumble to $30,000 in the coming months remains to be seen. The outcome of the 2024 US Presidential elections will undoubtedly play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin’s future price trajectory.
