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Bitcoin’s Market Movement: A Rollercoaster Week
Bitcoin surged to an astonishing $107,000 on Sunday, only to quickly pull back, unsettling investors and sparking new market volatility. This price action, which many hoped would lead to a decisive breakout into uncharted territory, instead reinforced Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase between $100,000 and $105,000. Analysts remain split on the outlook: some see this as a constructive pause before a bigger upward thrust, while others warn of a potential deeper correction if Bitcoin fails to maintain support at the $100,000 level.
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As the market grapples with this pullback, on-chain data provides additional insights. According to CryptoQuant, the supply of Bitcoin held by Long-Term Holders—wallets that have retained BTC for 18 months to 3 years—has decreased by over 2 million BTC since November 2023. This substantial distribution wave indicates that long-term investors have been capitalizing on the rising prices. While this doesn’t necessarily signal an impending crash, it underscores the need for robust demand from new participants, such as institutional investors, to alleviate the selling pressure. As Bitcoin hovers above $100,000 with significant resistance near its all-time high, the next decisive move could shape its trajectory as we head into summer.
Long-Term Holders Shift as Bitcoin Struggles for Stability
Bitcoin finds itself at a pivotal juncture as bullish investors strive to uphold the critical $100,000 support zone. Following the unsuccessful breakout at $107,000 on Sunday, the price has retreated to familiar territory, frustrating those who anticipated a breakthrough into new price discovery. While some view this as a natural consolidation phase before the next upward move, others fear a more profound retracement if Bitcoin slips below the $100,000 threshold.
The market faces formidable resistance between $105,000 and the all-time high near $109,000—a liquidity zone that could trigger aggressive buying if breached. However, the recent rejection indicates that sellers still exert influence at higher price levels, potentially increasing short-term volatility as the battle between bulls and bears intensifies.
Adding to the uncertainty is the behavior of long-term holders. Analyst Axel Adler has highlighted that since November 2023, wallets holding BTC for 18 months to 3 years have offloaded over 2 million BTC, equivalent to roughly $138 billion. This significant distribution wave likely fueled much of the recent rally but also raises concerns. Adler notes that this group still holds approximately 500,000 BTC, which could be sold later this year, potentially exacerbating pressure during weak market moments.
While institutional demand might absorb some of this future supply, given the renewed interest from the corporate sector, the broader market must remain vigilant. As the price consolidates, investor sentiment hangs in the balance. Whether bulls can regain higher levels or a deeper correction ensues will depend on Bitcoin’s response to the current stress test at $100,000.
Analyzing Price Action: Bulls Strive to Regain Control
Bitcoin shows signs of renewed vigor as it trades at $105,389, attempting to break above the recent resistance near the $106,000–$107,000 range. This level has previously capped rallies, and reclaiming it would indicate a bullish continuation toward all-time highs. The $100,000 psychological support has been successfully defended, now serving as a strong demand zone reinforced by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $92,994 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $88,664.
Though volume appears to be tapering compared to the surge earlier this month, suggesting some hesitance among bulls, the market structure remains intact. The strong breakout from April lows has established a steep and well-defined uptrend. The consolidation just below resistance could evolve into a bullish flag if the $107,000 ceiling is breached with robust volume.
A failed attempt to hold above $103,600 could prompt another retest of the $100,000 support, where bulls must stand firm to prevent deeper retracements. On the upside, surpassing $107,000 opens the path to $109,000 and beyond into price discovery. This week’s close will be pivotal—a strong candle above $106,000 could set the tone for the next macro leg higher.
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