Analyzing the Trends: HODL Momentum and Bitcoin’s Bullish Signals
In recent discussions, the renowned analyst On-Chain Mind has shed light on a critical on-chain metric: HODL Momentum. This indicator is currently exhibiting a downward trend, signaling that a smaller number of long-term Bitcoin holders are selling during this rally. Such behavior is typically interpreted as a bullish indicator for the market.
Bitcoin Bulls Set Sights on a Breakout as HODL Momentum Evolves
After reaching a record peak slightly above $112,000, Bitcoin is currently consolidating just below this significant resistance level. The bulls have a firm grip, yet the market eagerly anticipates a definitive breakout above $112K to validate the next phase of the rally. At present, Bitcoin has successfully maintained its position above previous support zones and continues to trade within a narrow range, indicating that a decisive move could be on the horizon.
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The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for risk assets. The U.S. Congress recently passed significant legislation proposed by President Donald Trump. This bill, which was finalized just before the July 4 deadline, includes substantial tax cuts and increased government spending. These measures are expected to generate inflationary pressures, conditions that have historically favored Bitcoin. Furthermore, robust labor market data from the United States has bolstered investor confidence, underpinning bullish market expectations.
On a positive note, on-chain data continues to demonstrate strong long-term confidence. On-Chain Mind highlights that the HODL Momentum metric is trending downward, which measures the strength of Bitcoin holders who have retained their coins for over a year. A decline in this indicator suggests that long-term holders are not liquidating their positions during the current rally, providing reassurance to bullish investors.
This behavior reflects a strong conviction among long-term holders, indicating a willingness to endure market fluctuations rather than securing profits prematurely. Historically, when long-term holders maintain their positions as prices rise, Bitcoin tends to experience substantial upward momentum. As the market absorbs macroeconomic changes and psychological resistance, the focus remains on the $112K level. A clear breach of this level could signal the start of a new surge into uncharted territory.
In-Depth BTC Price Analysis: Sustaining the Breakout Zone
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $111,079 on the 12-hour chart, having briefly surpassed the $112,000 mark to reach a new all-time high before a minor pullback. Despite this retracement, Bitcoin remains well above the previous resistance level of $109,300, now acting as support. This structural formation indicates a breakout attempt, and the bulls are now tasked with maintaining momentum to drive further price increases.
The chart reveals an increase in trading volume during the breakout, suggesting robust market participation. Additionally, the price remains above the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, all trending upward, which indicates a continuation of the bullish trend. As long as Bitcoin continues closing above the $109,300 support level, the breakout remains valid.
The 12-hour chart also highlights a pattern of higher lows dating back to late June, reinforcing the bullish scenario. Successfully defending the current levels could lead to a smooth retest of $112,000, potentially propelling Bitcoin into price discovery territory.
Conversely, if the breakout zone fails to hold, Bitcoin could decline toward $106,800 or even $103,600, where previous support and moving average confluence are located. The market remains vigilant for confirmation of this breakout, as bulls strive to maintain control.
