The Strong Start of Bitcoin in 2023
Bitcoin began the year with significant momentum, further amplified by the launch of spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds) in January. This introduction attracted a new wave of investors, pushing Bitcoin to an unprecedented all-time high of $73,737 by mid-March.
However, recent months have seen a slowdown in Bitcoin’s price movement, leading many investors and crypto enthusiasts to question if the bull cycle has reached its peak. Recent insights from a prominent blockchain firm provide a timeline for the premier cryptocurrency’s bull run.
Bitcoin Price Down By 12% From Its Halving Price
According to a recent report by crypto intelligence firm IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin’s behavior during a halving year plays a crucial role in the progression of its bull cycle. The fourth halving event, which took place in April, reduced miners’ rewards from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC. Although Bitcoin halving is typically seen as a bullish event, the months following have not been particularly favorable for the cryptocurrency.
Data from IntoTheBlock indicates that BTC has declined by 12% from its halving value of $63,900. Despite the current price being somewhat better than pre-halving projections, it has raised concerns among investors. Nevertheless, this underwhelming performance does not necessarily signify the end of the bull run, as Bitcoin’s price still appears to be far from its cycle peak.
IntoTheBlock’s report also highlighted that historically, the average time between a Bitcoin halving and the next price peak is approximately 480 days. This timeline projects the next cycle peak to occur around the summer of 2025. Currently, Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating within the $55,000 to $69,000 range over the past two quarters. A sustained break above the $70,000 mark could potentially signal the continuation of the bull cycle.
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When Will The Bull Cycle Resume?
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, has provided similar insights regarding the ongoing Bitcoin bull cycle. According to Ju, Bitcoin is still in the midst of its bull cycle and has not yet reached the retail bubble phase. This phase is characterized by a substantial influx of retail investors entering the market.
It is important to note that Bitcoin demand in certain markets, particularly the United States, appears to be declining. This trend is evident from the decreasing dominance of Coinbase’s spot trading volume, which has reverted to pre-spot ETF levels. Ju emphasized that a resurgence in US BTC demand is crucial for the bull cycle to resume.
Ju further speculated that this resurgence could occur in the fourth quarter of the year, although he acknowledged the possibility of being mistaken. As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $54,000, experiencing a modest 0.5% increase in the last 24 hours, but it has fallen by over 8.5% in the past week, according to CoinGecko data.
