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Current Market Landscape: Bitcoin’s Bearish Trend
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In light of recent unfavorable macroeconomic developments, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing persistent bearish pressure. Bitcoin, in particular, has witnessed a significant decline, with its value currently hovering around the $104,000 mark. Despite the bearish sentiment, pivotal on-chain metrics suggest that the ongoing bull market phase may still have room to thrive.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Prospects Remain Strong
Bitcoin’s recent bullish momentum, which marked the onset of a new bull market phase, has encountered a temporary setback after reaching a new all-time high. However, this pullback does not necessarily signal the end of the bull market, as on-chain data continues to indicate enduring strength.
A recent analysis shared on the data analytics platform Alphractal points to an emerging trend that could herald a fresh rally. According to Alphractal, “Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Still Allows Room for a New Rally.” This trend, considered a reliable indicator of market maturity, suggests that Bitcoin has the potential for further growth and might lead to a surge in the coming weeks.
Alphractal’s research is primarily focused on the Bitcoin On-Chain CapFlow Sentiment Index. This crucial metric employs a combination of momentum and stochastic indicators, alongside various on-chain oscillators, to evaluate Bitcoin’s realized capitalization. The index has been effective in identifying points where the momentum of coin flow within the network diminishes, signaling distribution by informed investors. The same holds true during accumulation phases, which often coincide with local market bottoms.
Currently, Alphractal’s sentiment index points to a new distribution phase, suggesting its continued growth. Upon reaching this phase, the existing bull cycle is expected to conclude, positioning Bitcoin at its most extreme level. The platform has highlighted October 2025 as a pivotal month for Bitcoin, with fractal analysis, on-chain data, and technical metrics collectively indicating a potential market exit opportunity. This suggests that October could be a prime candidate for the cycle peak, regardless of whether Bitcoin experiences a rally or a downturn in the near future.
Alphractal maintains that this approach remains valid until the analysis presents a new perspective. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin bull market retains its strength, and the possibility of a new rally remains on the horizon.
Anticipating a Major Surge to New Heights
While on-chain data indicates the continuation of the bull market, cryptocurrency analysts, such as Trader Tardigrade, have forecasted a significant surge to unprecedented levels. Trader Tardigrade’s prediction is based on an essential price pattern known as the Power of 3.
Upon examining the 1-week chart, the expert identified that Bitcoin has entered a distribution phase, which could trigger a substantial upswing. If the current distribution phase follows a 5-wave structure, waves 1 and 2 may already be complete. The expert anticipates that the most aggressive wave is imminent, with Bitcoin potentially reaching the $200,000 mark in wave 5.
At present, Bitcoin is trading at $105,765, according to data from Tradingview.com.
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