Bitcoin’s Potential Price Decline: An In-Depth Analysis
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing turbulence, with Bitcoin’s price facing a potential significant drop after hitting a low of $91,000 earlier this week. Prominent crypto analyst Dgtrd has suggested that Bitcoin might fall below the critical $30,000 mark.
Analyzing the Potential for Bitcoin to Fall Under $30,000
In a detailed TradingView analysis, Dgtrd outlined a scenario where Bitcoin could plummet to $19,973 by the following year. The analysis identified that Bitcoin appears to be advancing in its fifth wave, often a precursor to reaching new all-time highs (ATHs).
Advertisement Banner
Despite the potential rise, Dgtrd warned that these ATHs might be less significant, as fifth waves can commonly conclude as ending diagonals. On a broader scale, the conclusion of this lower-degree fifth wave indicates the culmination of the larger third wave. If this prediction holds, a higher-degree corrective phase may soon emerge, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price below $30,000.
Historically, significant market corrections have led to price drops exceeding 75%. Should history repeat itself, Dgtrd anticipates that the forthcoming fourth wave of a larger degree might follow a similar pattern. This could usher Bitcoin into a bearish trend in the coming months.
During this phase, Dgtrd forecasts that Bitcoin’s value might decline below $30,000, possibly bottoming out at $19,973. This price point could represent the nadir for Bitcoin in the next bearish cycle. Nonetheless, the analysis also suggests that Bitcoin has the potential to soar to $260,000 or more in the subsequent bull run.
Evaluating Whether Bitcoin Has Reached Its Peak
Bitcoin has seen a substantial retracement from its existing all-time high of $109, attained on January 20, the day Donald Trump was inaugurated. This retracement has reignited debates regarding Bitcoin’s peak in this cycle. Contrasting views are offered by crypto analyst Tony Severino, who believes Bitcoin has not yet peaked.
While Severino acknowledges that some time cycles and wave counts have been fulfilled, he argues that the monthly technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), do not align with what is typically observed at a market peak. This suggests to him that Bitcoin has not reached its apex.
Severino also dismissed the notion of a blow-off top for Bitcoin in this cycle, citing insufficient market strength for such a pattern. He noted that while this scenario remains possible, diminishing returns and reduced volatility could impede its formation.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading around $96,150, experiencing a slight decrease of nearly 1% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.
