Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin’s Market Trends and Future Prospects
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Bitcoin’s Market Correction: A Detailed Overview
Since October, Bitcoin has been experiencing significant selling pressure, following a swift reversal after reaching an unprecedented high of nearly $125,000. Within a matter of weeks, the cryptocurrency’s value plummeted to around $60,000, shifting market sentiment from optimistic to defensive. While volatility is not uncommon after substantial rallies, the rapidity of this downturn has raised concerns that Bitcoin may be entering a prolonged cyclical decline rather than a brief consolidation.
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Renowned analyst Axel Adler interprets this market behavior through on-chain data. The Entity-Adjusted Liveliness metric, which analyzes long-term coin activity against holding behavior, reached a peak of approximately 0.02676 in December 2025, two months post the price’s all-time high. This lag is typical for cumulative on-chain indicators, and the subsequent downward trend historically signals the end of distribution phases and the onset of accumulation periods.
Liveliness Reversal: A Prelude to Long-Term Accumulation?
Adler highlights that the liveliness metric peaked soon after Bitcoin’s all-time high, followed by a downward trend, indicating a shift from distribution to accumulation. The key question now is not whether a bear market has begun, but its potential duration and depth. The Entity-Adjusted Liveliness, which measures coin days destroyed versus coin days created, offers insights into long-term holder behavior and capital movements within the network.
Bitcoin’s liveliness continued to climb for two months after reaching approximately $125,000 in October 2025, peaking near 0.02676 in December, consistent with typical cumulative on-chain metric lags. By mid-February 2026, the indicator dipped to about 0.02669, falling below its 30-day and 90-day moving averages, which now act as resistance. Historically, this configuration suggests declining spending activity among long-term holders.
Previous cycles reveal similar patterns, with accumulation phases starting in 2020 lasting about 1.1 years, while the 2022–2024 period extended for roughly 2.5 years. If this pattern continues, accumulation could extend into late 2026 or even mid-2027. A decisive rollover of the 90-day average below the 365-day trend would confirm a structural transition.
Examining Bitcoin’s Weekly Market Structure
Bitcoin’s weekly chart illustrates a marked shift from late-cycle expansion to a corrective phase, with the price consolidating near $67,000 after a steep decline from its ~$125,000 peak. The breakdown below medium-term moving averages signals weakening momentum, while repeated failures to recapture the $90,000–$100,000 range reinforce the shift toward a bearish regime.
Technically, the loss of the green mid-cycle moving average, which previously served as dynamic support during the 2024–2025 uptrend, is significant. Bitcoin now trades below this level, with the longer-term red moving average in the mid-$50,000 range representing the next major structural support. Historically, extended trading below intermediate averages often precedes prolonged consolidation or deeper corrections.
Volume dynamics warrant caution as well. The spike in volume during the recent selloff suggests strong distribution rather than orderly profit-taking. However, the subsequent moderation may indicate a temporary easing of panic selling.
If Bitcoin stabilizes above $60,000, a range formation remains possible. A decisive breakdown below this level could heighten downside risk towards longer-term cost-basis supports, while reclaiming the $80,000–$90,000 zone would be crucial for improving the broader technical outlook.
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