Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin’s Current Market Trends
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Bitcoin’s Struggle to Maintain the $70,000 Threshold Amid Market Turbulence
The cryptocurrency market is witnessing Bitcoin’s ongoing battle to stay above the critical $70,000 mark, as the market reflects diminishing demand following continuous selling pressure. Despite several attempts to rally, Bitcoin’s price continues to display vulnerability, with market liquidity thinning and volatility on the rise. Investors remain cautious in the face of macroeconomic uncertainties, a waning risk appetite, and sustained outflows from speculative assets, all of which are impacting the wider crypto market.
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A recent report by Axel Adler reveals that the bear market, which commenced in November 2025, has intensified following a significant downturn last Friday, amounting to a 46% drawdown from the market cycle peak. Historically, such a correction indicates a shift from an initial pullback to a more entrenched bearish phase, where sentiment typically worsens before eventually stabilizing.
The analysis highlights Bitcoin’s proximity to the 1.25× Realized Price Band, a historically critical level that often delineates standard corrections from capitulation stages. As Bitcoin tests this boundary, market dynamics become particularly sensitive to shifts in liquidity and investor behavior. The ability of Bitcoin to maintain this level will likely dictate its short-term trajectory. A continued breakdown could signal deeper capitulation, while stabilization might lay the groundwork for future accumulation.
Transition into an Intensified Bear Market Phase
Axel Adler’s insights on Bitcoin Bear Market Correction Drawdowns place the ongoing 2025–2026 downturn within a historical framework, comparing its severity to previous bear market cycles. This metric evaluates percentage drawdowns from each cycle’s all-time high, using a logarithmic scale for a clearer understanding of market stress, separate from nominal price changes.
The current bear phase initiated after Bitcoin peaked near $124,450 in October 2025. By November, a persistent downtrend had emerged, with the correction expanding from an initial −20% to −30%, before accelerating to approximately −46% by early February. Notably, the decline intensified sharply from −28% on January 28 to −46% by February 6. A brief stabilization near $70,700 followed, indicating an approximate −43% drawdown.
Historically, past cycles experienced much steeper declines, with a −93% drop in 2011, and approximately −83% during both the 2013–2015 and 2017–2018 bear markets, as well as a −76% correction during 2021–2022. In this context, the current reduction appears less severe. Adler posits that three months of persistent downward momentum suggests entry into a deeper corrective phase. Stabilization within the −40% to −50% range would indicate a moderation in cycle volatility, whereas a drop beyond −50% could herald further declines toward the −60% to −70% range.
Bitcoin Faces Crucial Support Tests Amidst Heightened Downtrend Pressure
Recent Bitcoin price movements have shown a clear degradation in market structure following a sharp decline towards the $65K–$70K range. This is marked by a decisive loss of short-term support and an aggressive sell-off that pushed prices well below key moving averages, signaling sustained bearish momentum rather than a mere correction.
Bitcoin is currently trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, all of which are beginning to slope downward. This alignment typically signifies a shift from consolidation to a more established downtrend. The rejection near the mid-$90K range earlier in the cycle appears to confirm a lower high, reinforcing the risk of continued bearish momentum.
Volume dynamics are also noteworthy. The sharp increase in volume during the recent drop suggests forced selling, likely driven by liquidations and panic positioning. Historically, such volume spikes can either mark capitulation or precede further declines if additional selling pressure follows.
Structurally, the $65K zone is now pivotal. Maintaining this level could allow for stabilization and a potential recovery bounce. However, a sustained breach below this level could expose the next demand area closer to the low-$60K range, where stronger historical support may emerge.
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