Quantum Doomsday Clock: A New Era of Cryptocurrency Vulnerability
The advent of quantum computing is set to revolutionize many fields, and one area under its potential threat is cryptocurrency. A groundbreaking online tool, known as the Quantum Doomsday Clock, forecasts that within the next few years, quantum computers might possess the capability to compromise Bitcoin’s (BTC) private keys.
Countdown to Vulnerability: March 8, 2028
The Quantum Doomsday Clock has pinpointed March 8, 2028, as a pivotal date. As of November 8, 2025, it indicates a remaining countdown of 2 years and 4 months until a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) can deploy Shor’s algorithm to breach ECDSA secp256k1. This elliptic curve standard is the backbone of security for Bitcoin and numerous other cryptocurrencies.
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The Developers Behind the Clock
This innovative project was conceived by Dr. Richard Carback, a respected cryptography researcher and co-founder of the xx network, in collaboration with Colton Dillion, a forward-thinking cryptocurrency entrepreneur. Together, they developed this tool under the banners of Postquant Labs and Hadamard Gate Inc.
Quantum Threats to Cryptocurrency
According to detailed models, approximately 1,673 logical qubits would be enough to extract Bitcoin private keys from exposed public keys within an efficient timeframe. These findings are supported by recent academic research and the quantum hardware development plans of major players such as IBM and Google.
Should this scenario come to fruition, Bitcoin addresses that have previously spent funds and disclosed public keys would be at immediate risk. This includes legacy P2PK and reused P2PKH addresses. In contrast, unspent Taproot (bc1p…) and segregated witness addresses would retain their security for a longer period since only their hashes are public.
Expert Opinions on Bitcoin’s Security Timeline
While some experts perceive the 2028 timeline as rather ambitious, authoritative bodies like NIST and the Global Risk Institute suggest a plausible quantum threat window between 2028 and 2035. On the other side of the spectrum, a 2025 publication by Google researcher Craig Gidney posits that breaking RSA-2048 encryption might demand significantly fewer resources than previously estimated, potentially accelerating the timeline to 2030-2035.
Perspectives on the Imminence of Quantum Threats
David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, advises vigilance regarding potential vulnerabilities within the next five years, projecting a risk by 2030. Concurrently, the Global Risk Institute’s 2024 report, which surveyed 32 experts, indicated that the threat could be more imminent than anticipated, with a 50% likelihood of occurrence within 15 years (by 2039), escalating swiftly throughout the 2030s.
Conversely, Blockstream CEO Adam Back maintains that no significant threat exists for at least two decades. However, he concedes that unexpected advancements might necessitate transitioning coins to quantum-resistant addresses.
The Future of Quantum Computing and Cryptocurrencies
The ongoing progress in quantum computing continues to fuel concerns about cryptocurrency security. Notably, IBM is poised to unveil the world’s first fault-tolerant quantum computer, named Quantum Starling, by 2029, following Google’s achievement with its 105-qubit Willow chip.
As the frontier of technology expands, the intersection of quantum computing and cryptocurrencies remains a critical area of focus. Vigilance and proactive measures are essential to safeguarding digital assets in this evolving landscape.
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