Bitcoin’s Battle at $110,000: An In-Depth Analysis
The Bitcoin market is presently facing significant challenges, with BTC struggling to maintain the $110,000 support level. As the end of the month approaches, there is increased pressure on the price. The market’s structure remains fragile following recent volatility, and several analysts caution that Bitcoin might revisit lower demand zones before establishing a robust foundation. With liquidity pools lying beneath the current price and persistent seller resistance near the upper thresholds, short-term declines cannot be dismissed as traders reevaluate their positions after the Federal Reserve’s recent policy shift.
Encouraging Signs Amidst Market Uncertainty
Despite the challenges, not all indicators suggest weakness. Numerous investors remain hopeful as macroeconomic conditions once again begin to favor risk assets. The Federal Reserve’s recent 25 basis points rate cut and the announcement that quantitative tightening will conclude by December 1st have set the stage for what many perceive as the initial phase of a new liquidity cycle, historically beneficial for Bitcoin’s long-term growth.
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On-chain data also reflects a more stable market environment. Over the past month, the activity involving older coins has remained moderate, with long-term holders not engaging in panic selling. This behavior signifies strong conviction among experienced market participants, even as Bitcoin navigates short-term volatility. These dynamics collectively indicate a market in transition: tactically cautious yet strategically positioned for potential growth.
Strong Conviction Among Bitcoin Holders
Top analyst Axel Adler emphasizes that Bitcoin’s recent spending patterns among long-term holders have been notably stable, highlighting strong market conviction even as prices struggle to maintain key support levels. Adler uses the Average Spent Output Lifespan (ASOL) metric, which tracks the average age of coins being moved on-chain. Despite brief increases to 245 days on October 8 and 209 days on October 21, these signals are considerably weaker compared to the heavy long-term holder activity observed in spring and June.
Unlike earlier periods, where the movement of older coins indicated significant distribution events often preceding market corrections, the recent mild upticks suggest a lack of widespread intent among long-term holders to exit their positions. The 30-day ASOL moving average currently stands near 111 days, which Adler characterizes as a structural baseline indicative of healthy consolidation rather than distribution.
This indicates that seasoned holders remain patient, without urgency to take profits, despite macroeconomic uncertainties and short-term fluctuations. Concurrently, incoming liquidity continues to absorb supply, as referenced in recent Substack commentary. This absorption is crucial as it reflects a market where available Bitcoin is gradually tightening, fostering price stability even amidst constrained speculative flows.
In summary, these on-chain conditions suggest a foundational phase rather than market exhaustion. As liquidity improves and macroeconomic headwinds diminish, this quiet conviction among long-term holders could lay the groundwork for the next significant upward movement, once demand meaningfully accelerates. For now, the market remains calm beneath the surface, a posture historically linked to accumulation phases and future expansion rather than widespread distribution or capitulation.
Bitcoin’s Struggle Near the $117,500 Resistance
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $110,100, attempting to stabilize following another sharp rejection from the $117,500 resistance zone — a level that has consistently capped upward attempts since mid-August. The 12-hour chart reveals a recurring pattern: each move toward the upper range fades near the cluster of moving averages, with sellers aggressively entering at resistance and pushing BTC back into its mid-range support zone.
At present, BTC is holding above a crucial demand band between $108,500 and $110,000, a zone that previously acted as a pivot during late-September and early-October price movements. Maintaining this zone is essential for bulls. A breakdown here could expose Bitcoin to the $104,000–$106,000 region, where the price dipped during the October 10 liquidation event.
On the upside, a structural shift requires BTC to reclaim the 50- and 100-period moving averages on the 12-hour timeframe and establish a foothold above $114,500. Only then would momentum build for another test of $117,500, with a confirmed breakout paving the way towards the $120,000–$123,000 range.
Currently, Bitcoin remains range-bound, caught between macroeconomic optimism and lingering supply pressure. With volatility compressing once again, the next significant move is likely to occur once the market digests recent policy changes and liquidity flows begin redirecting decisively.
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