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Current Bitcoin Market Dynamics: A New Phase?
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a turbulent period, marked by a battle between bullish and bearish forces. While the bulls strive to push prices upward, the bears have been unable to drive Bitcoin below the $110,000 threshold. This ongoing tension suggests a market in transition, as we witness Ethereum and other altcoins beginning to show strength against Bitcoin. This raises intriguing questions about capital flow and evolving market trends.
Recent insights from CryptoQuant highlight a clear divergence between short-term traders and larger, conviction-driven investors. According to their findings, addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC—often dubbed “sharks”—have accumulated an impressive 65,000 BTC within a mere week. This aggressive buying spree has expanded their total holdings to an unprecedented 3.65 million BTC. Notably, this accumulation has occurred despite spot prices hovering around $112,000. While retail-driven volatility has caused some market turbulence, larger buyers continue to exhibit robust demand.
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The disparity indicates that long-term investors are gearing up for the next phase of the market cycle, absorbing available supply as short-term traders hesitate. Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its position above the $110,000 mark amidst ongoing market fluctuations underscores its inherent strength.
Onchain Data Signals a Potential Supply Squeeze for Bitcoin
An analysis from XWIN Finance, shared by CryptoQuant, presents two crucial onchain datasets that reveal Bitcoin’s market behavior is driven by strong structural demand rather than fleeting speculation. These indicators—Long-Term Holder (LTH) Net Position Change and Exchange Netflow—illustrate a consistent absorption of supply, potentially setting the stage for upward price momentum.
The LTH Net Position Change, which tracks 30-day balance shifts among seasoned holders, has shown a significant positive trend. This suggests that long-term investors are actively accumulating Bitcoin rather than distributing it. Historically, such accumulation phases often lead to major bull markets, as coins transition into “strong hands” less likely to sell during short-term fluctuations. This shift of supply into long-term storage reduces available liquidity, tightening market conditions for future rallies.
Data on Exchange Netflow provides additional evidence. Recent weeks have seen dominant net outflows, indicating that investors prefer cold storage over leaving assets liquid for immediate trading. Coupled with LTH absorption, this confirms that recent shark buying is not mere speculative activity but an actual removal of supply from circulation.
The confluence of shark accumulation, LTH buying, and persistent exchange outflows creates conditions ripe for a potential supply squeeze. Although short-term corrections may occur if derivatives leverage overheats, the structural outlook favors higher prices as soon as demand increases. Beneath the current volatility, the foundation for Bitcoin’s next significant upward move appears to be quietly taking shape.
Price Analysis: Navigating Through Consolidation
Bitcoin is presently valued at $115,019, reflecting a stable recovery from early September lows near $110,000. The daily chart indicates that BTC is gaining momentum as it approaches a critical resistance zone. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $114,562 has been reclaimed, while the 100-day SMA at $112,323 now serves as solid support, reinforcing a bullish market structure. The 200-day SMA at $102,202 continues to anchor the long-term trend, confirming Bitcoin’s structural health despite recent fluctuations.
The next obstacle is the $116,000–$118,000 resistance area, which has capped rallies in recent weeks. A decisive breakout and close above this zone could pave the way toward the significant barrier at $123,217, a key level to watch in the current market cycle.
On the downside, immediate support is found near $114,000, with stronger support around $112,000. As long as BTC holds these levels, buyers are likely to maintain control. However, a break below $112,000 could shift momentum in favor of sellers, potentially bringing the $110,000 level back into focus.
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