Samson Mow’s Insight on Ethereum’s Market Movements

Samson Mow, a prominent figure in the Bitcoin community and the CEO of JAN3, has provided a critical perspective on the recent performance of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin. Mow suggests that the observed movements in the ETHBTC pair are not organic but rather orchestrated by Ethereum insiders who are wealthy in Bitcoin. These insiders, Mow argues, are strategically reallocating their Bitcoin holdings into Ethereum to create a temporary surge in its narrative, only to revert back to Bitcoin eventually. “Let me explain what’s happening with ETHBTC,” he stated on social media, initiating a detailed analysis of market behavior and psychology.

Bitcoin Advocates Dismiss Ethereum’s Temporary Gains

Mow describes a familiar pattern in the cryptocurrency world: “Many Ethereum holders possess significant Bitcoin holdings from initial coin offerings or insider activities, and they shift these into Ethereum to inflate its value based on new narratives, such as Ethereum Treasuries.” Once Ethereum’s price reaches a desired level, Mow continues, “They will sell off their Ethereum, creating new holders who may face losses, and then transfer their profits back into Bitcoin.” This cycle, he asserts, underscores a broader skepticism regarding Ethereum’s long-term viability, encapsulated in his advice, “No one wants Ethereum in the long run. Plan accordingly.”

Market Analysis: Ethereum’s Price Movements

Currently, Ether’s price is fluctuating around the low $4,200s, having hit a recent high of approximately $4,337. The ETHBTC pair is trading in the mid-0.03 range. In terms of dollar value, a key question is whether Ethereum can maintain a position above the $4,000–$4,100 range and push through the $4,300–$4,430 resistance zone. Technicians view the 0.04 level as a significant resistance point on the ETHBTC chart, signaling potential Ethereum dominance if surpassed on a weekly timeframe. Given that Ethereum’s all-time high was around $4,878 in 2021, there is potential for a classic seller’s ambush, which has halted previous upward trends.

The Psychological Game: Selling vs. Holding

Mow emphasizes the psychological barriers Ethereum faces in attempting to reach new highs. “Breaking all-time highs is challenging for Ethereum as nearing these psychological levels increases the incentive to sell,” he explained. Mow likens this to a “Bagholder’s Dilemma,” where investors must decide between selling or holding, akin to the Prisoner’s Dilemma.

The Rotational Strategy and Bitcoin’s Role

Mow dismisses concerns about Ethereum breaking its downward trendline in the ETHBTC pair, stating, “Bitcoiners shouldn’t worry about it. Ethereum has always been a tool for accumulating more Bitcoin, true since the ICO era and still true now.” Even if the trendline is breached, Mow believes the BTC→ETH→BTC rotation strategy remains in play.

Ethereum Treasuries: A Narrative with Caution

The discussion around “Ethereum Treasuries” has recently gained traction, partly due to comments from Vitalik Buterin, who sees potential value in Ethereum as a corporate treasury asset. However, he warns that if such strategies lead to excessive leverage, they could harm Ethereum’s future. Buterin’s earlier criticisms of Bitcoin treasury companies contrast with his cautious endorsement of Ethereum treasuries.

The Flippening Debate and Market Speculation

Speculation intensified after Joe Lubin, founder of ConsenSys, suggested on CNBC that Ethereum could surpass Bitcoin in market value within a year, a scenario often referred to as the “flippening.” In response, Mow sarcastically dismissed these claims, noting the improbability of such a shift. A social media user humorously remarked, “You cannot make up a better Ethereum top signal than this. This is unobtainium in terms of top signals.”