Dogecoin’s Current Market Trajectory: A Departure from Historical Bullish Patterns
Dogecoin, often hailed as the leading meme cryptocurrency, has veered away from its characteristic bullish paths observed in previous cycles. As the year unfolds, DOGE has faced notable price declines, sparking concerns about its potential to initiate a substantial bull run in the current cycle.
Analyzing Dogecoin’s Deviation from Past Bullish Trends
According to insights from CryptoRank, Dogecoin is straying from its historical bullish momentum seen during the 2021 market surge. The cryptocurrency began the year on a bearish note, experiencing significant price drops since January. In the first month of the year, Dogecoin managed a modest 4% gain, but its value took a hit with a 20% decline as February progressed.
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This downturn stands in stark contrast to the impressive gains Dogecoin achieved during the start of the 2021 bull market. During that period, DOGE experienced a 711% surge in January, followed by a 26% increase in February. The upward trend continued throughout the first four months of that year, with March and April witnessing gains of 11% and 546%, respectively.
However, the current 2025 market cycle presents a different scenario. Dogecoin has already seen a 20% drop this month, suggesting a potential end-of-month decline. Such a conclusion could disrupt the parallels between the 2021 and 2025 market cycles, raising questions about the trajectory of this cycle.
Despite these concerns, historical patterns from the 2017 bull market offer a glimmer of hope. Back in 2017, Dogecoin commenced the year with losses of 7% in January and 2% in February, only to embark on a robust bull run in the subsequent months. Gains of 59%, 124%, and 256% were recorded in March, April, and May, respectively.
Potential Downside for DOGE in the Near Term
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has expressed caution regarding Dogecoin’s short-term outlook, suggesting the possibility of further price declines. In a recent analysis shared on X, Martinez highlighted that DOGE has encountered a ‘death cross’ between its market value to realized value (MVRV) and the 200-day moving average (MA). Historically, this pattern led to price drops of 26% and 44% during its last occurrences.
Currently, Dogecoin is entrenched in a downtrend, characterized by lower lows and lower highs. For a shift in momentum, a breakout above critical resistance levels is necessary. Martinez’s analysis indicates that DOGE must surpass the $0.27 resistance to potentially initiate a bullish reversal.
Presently, Dogecoin is valued at approximately $0.26, reflecting a decrease of over 3% in the past 24 hours, as per data from CoinMarketCap.
