The Bitcoin market has recently witnessed a remarkable surge, reaching a new all-time high of $89,940 on Binance. This unprecedented increase in Bitcoin’s value has been largely driven by the excitement and anticipation surrounding Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. The market’s enthusiasm has been further fueled by Trump’s promises to establish a national Bitcoin reserve and his consideration of using Bitcoin to address the US national debt.
Bitcoin Price Targets $102,000
In the midst of this bullish momentum, renowned Bitcoin on-chain analyst Willy Woo, known by his handle @woonomic on X, has shared his insights into Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. He has pinpointed critical price levels, suggesting that after the current $88,000 to $91,000 range, the next significant target for Bitcoin is $102,000.
Market Behavior and Price Discovery
Woo elaborated on the nature of Bitcoin’s market behavior when reaching new all-time highs, highlighting the absence of prior resistance levels for traders to rely on. This situation typically leads to unrestrained price discovery and is often characterized by volatile price swings. In such circumstances, Woo explained, two primary methods can be utilized to identify new resistance levels: Fibonacci bands, which are based on natural mathematical sequences, and the real liquidation levels of market positions. Woo pointed out that the $88,000 to $91,000 range was the first target, which has now been achieved, indicating that a period of consolidation is expected at this level.
Fibonacci Levels and Market Dynamics
Woo emphasized the significance of the $102,000 mark, referring to it as the next macro Fibonacci retracement level, derived from the last cycle’s high and the current cycle’s low. He encouraged observing where new market liquidations might cluster around, while maintaining that the $102,000 target is primarily based on Fibonacci calculations. Additionally, Woo addressed the topic of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap—a price gap in Bitcoin futures that often forms over weekends or during trading halts. He suggested that if the CME gap materializes, it would likely coincide with the consolidation phase. Notably, a new CME gap has emerged over the past weekend, situated between $78,000 and approximately $80,700. Since mid-March 2024, Bitcoin has consistently filled every CME gap that has appeared, although historically, not all gaps are filled.
Technical Analysis and Market Fundamentals
Another user raised a potential resistance issue based on technical analysis, citing an evaluation by Sven Henrich, the founder and Chief Market Strategist at NorthmanTrader. Henrich observed that Bitcoin is approaching a key trend line resistance with a pronounced negative weekly RSI divergence, noting that a similar divergence was present when Bitcoin reached its peak in November 2021. While Woo acknowledged Henrich’s expertise, he stressed the importance of fundamental factors over traditional technical analysis. He emphasized that the fundamental demand and supply structure, driven by actual investor activity, global liquidity expansion, and market positioning, is significantly different and almost completely opposite from the past.
When asked about the use of Fibonacci levels, which are a component of technical analysis, Woo agreed but highlighted that their effectiveness is enhanced when combined with fundamental market conditions. He remarked, “Not dissing it,” regarding technical analysis, but noted that it provides better insights when considering the underlying fundamental environment.
As of the latest updates, Bitcoin is trading at $87,492, just below the 1.618 Fibonacci level on the 1-week chart.
